Day: September 14, 2024

Here are the stats from the 9th race at Gulfstream, a $8K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race is a good example of one containing a “false favorite” with #5 Cardon Settlement, who was the program’s first selection at 9-5. When sizing up whether Cardon Settlement is a solid favorite, attention should be paid to its risk, which in this case was very high for the horse with a Coefficient Variance of 45.73%. This makes the horse a toss. The pool did not even account for the higher risk in its pricing of Cardon Settlement. The other horses also had elevated risk, with only three out of the nine horses having Coefficient of Variances below 10%. These elevated risk figures make the race bad and unreliable from a quantitative view. And this is exactly what happened in the race, with Cardon Settlement failing down the stretch as the overvalued underlay. #10 Bold Looker, as a horse that had been away for 184 days and one that had a low Win Percentage at 8%, was the winner at 5-1. Sometimes with the races one has to be careful not to chase bad races with bad horses (it was only a $8K claiming race) and wait for the next right spot.

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The program had another good result Gulfstream, this time in the 6th at Gulfstream, a $16K claiming race at 1 mi. off the turf for three-year-olds. The second selection was the one to pay attention to in this race in #6 Youramystyle, who had a total win probability of 15.53%, translating to theoretical odds of 5-1. A lot of the time, having a higher CV value is a bad thing, where a horse projects stronger than he actually is. But other times, the higher CV value or risk of the horse can be used to reap greater returns than playing a favorite at 9-5. Youramystyle projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 28.1% (about 5-2 equivalent), a LP projection of 34.1% (2-1 equivalent) and a COMP of 15.5% (5-1 equivalent) while having high risk with a CV value of 19.2%. In spite of its elevated risk, the horse was mispriced until seconds before the start, literally going from 20-1 to 11-1. Below there are two screen shots of the odds, showing them going from 18-1 to 11-1, where they settled. This huge drop in the odds of the horse shows how prevalent quantitative handicapping is at the big tracks like Gulfstream, the kind of that is offered in Pro-Handicap Wizard software and practiced in quant handicapping funds in Chicago, which have been written about in articles on horse racing in the last few years. This software was programmed very much in the Chicago tradition, thanks to the mathematics contribution of a former graduate professor in statistics at at Indiana University. It paid to take a risk on Youramystyle in this race, who not only had good speed projections but also had came into the race in good form, having the highest final speed figure of any horses in their last race with 80. The pool discounted the horse because of higher risk, but form was more important in this race than strictly viewing the risk. In the race, Youramystyle went out to the lead and held on to it for most of the race until he weakened late and was beaten by #5 Stingmusic at 2-1. Stingmusic’s low odds were explained by he having won his last race at the same stakes level. Youramystyle paid $10.40 for the place and $5.60 for the show.

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The Grey Program had a nice result in the 3rd race at Gulfstream today (the first non-maiden race), a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its first selection of #3 Wicked Genius at 3-1. Wicked Genius had a total win probability of 29.20%, converting to theoretical odds of 2-1. The horse’s speed projections were key in the race, projecting 1st in final speed with a 48.9% (1-1 odds equivalent) while having average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.12%. That relatively low risk number made the speed projection fairly reliable, where Wicked Genius was a solid choice by projecting almost 1-1 strength against the field. On top of the final speed projection, the horse was also dominant in E2, LP and COMP with win estimates of 37.4%, 38.5%, 41.98%. In the race, Wicked Genius stalked from off the pace before making a wide move around the far turn. The horse’s continued to build momentum into the stretch and came up nicely for the win. Wicked Genius paid $8.20. The high speed and low risk profile that Wicked Genius had is exactly what a handicapper should be looking for in an overlay.