By The Grey Program had a nice result in the 3rd race at Gulfstream today (the first non-maiden race), a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its first selection of #3 Wicked Genius at 3-1. Wicked Genius had a total win probability of 29.20%, converting to theoretical odds of 2-1. The horse’s speed projections were key in the race, projecting 1st in final speed with a 48.9% (1-1 odds equivalent) while having average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.12%. That relatively low risk number made the speed projection fairly reliable, where Wicked Genius was a solid choice by projecting almost 1-1 strength against the field. On top of the final speed projection, the horse was also dominant in E2, LP and COMP with win estimates of 37.4%, 38.5%, 41.98%. In the race, Wicked Genius stalked from off the pace before making a wide move around the far turn. The horse’s continued to build momentum into the stretch and came up nicely for the win. Wicked Genius paid $8.20. The high speed and low risk profile that Wicked Genius had is exactly what a handicapper should be looking for in an overlay.
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