Preakness winner, Seize the Grey, won the Pennsylvania Derby today in thrilling fashion, holding off a late charging #11 Stronghold at the wire. The Grey Program had Seize the Grey as its first selection with a total win probability of 18.28%, converting to theoretical odds of 9-2. The horse went off at 4-1 while #11 Stronghold at 5-1 finished second and the favorite #7 Dragoon Guard third. Seize the Grey paid $10.60 for the win and the $1 exacta paid $41.
The Grey Program had an excellent result in the 3rd race at Belmont at Aqueduct, a $12.5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds, having the correct order of the tri-fecta with its top three selections of #10 Commerce Comet at 3-1, #6 Jake Rocks at 5-2 and #4 Thank You John at 10-1. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $37.25.
The Turf Program had a very nice result in the 3rd at Parx, the $100 Alphabet Soup Handicap, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up. The program’s first two selections were #7 Crisper at 5-2 and #11 Fierce and Strong at 3-1. This was the order of finish for win and place, with Crisper making a wide move around the far turn to catch Fierce and Strong just before the wire. The $1 ex. paid $12.
Today at Parx is the $1 mil. Pennslyvania Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Preakness Stakes winner, #3 Seize the Grey, West Virginia and Indiana Derby winner, #Dragoon Guard, Santa Anita Derby Winner, #11 Stronghold, and Withers Stakes winner, #10, Uncle Heavy. The program is favoring Seize the Grey as its first selection with a total win probability of 18.28%, translating into theoretical odds of 9-2—very close to where it is on the M/L at 5-1. Seize the Grey fell out of form in his last two starts in Jim Dandy and Belmont Stakes but won the Preakness Stakes, explaining his top-in-the-field 26.2% win percentage (3-1 equivalent in odds). The second selection is #1 Doc Sullivan with a total win probability of 16.86%, equating to theoretical odds of 9-2. Doc Sullivan projects second in final speed with a 26.0% win estimate (3-1 equivalent), a 62.3% estimate and a low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 3.53%. The third selection is #5 Protective, who has a total win probability of 12.62%. Protective projects strength in E1 and E2 as well as COMP with values of 22.9%, 44.0% and 79.8%. The fourth selection is the M/L #7 Dragoon Guard with a total win probability of 11.6%. The horse is undefeated in his last five starts, including winning the West Virginia and Indiana Derbies in his last two. Dragoon Guard has the second highest win probability at 18.4% but projects fourth in final speed with a win estimate of 9.8%. In the final analysis, this is an open race with no horse having a total win probability of more than 20%. Seize the Grey seems a vulnerable first selection after having dropped out of form in his last races while Dragoon Guard as the M/L favorite projects weaker in final speed than Doc Sullivan, Timeout, Just Step On It. However, Dragoon Guard is in fine form after winning the West Virginia Derby handily over #11 Stronghold, finding an extra gear down the stretch. That said, it is fair to say that Dragoon Guard is better than he looks on paper in terms of his speed projections against the field. Projecting dominantly in late speed, #1 Doc Sullivan could surprise in this race given he 1 1/18 mi. distance after finishing second in the $250K Albany and $159K NY Derby in his last two starts. The final selections according to the program are #2 Seize the Grey, #1 Doc Sullivan, #5 Protective and #7 Dragoon Guard.
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