Month: November 2024

The Turf Program had a very good result in the 8th race at Gulfstream, a $25K optional claiming race on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares. The first selection was #8 Nineteenthamendment at 8-1 with a total probability of 33.81%, translating into theoretical odds of 2-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 49.8% (1-1 equivalent) while having relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.41%. Additionally, the horse had the highest win percentage in the field at 24.2% (3-1 equivalent). Nineteethamendment went the distance in the win, paying $18. This was a case where the horse was completely mis-evaluated by the pool when both her SPD projection and Win Percentage indicated 3-1 strength or better.

The program had a very nice result in the 10th at Gulfstream, a $75K Handicap at 5 1/2 f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, with its first selection of #10 Smithwick’s Spice, who won at 15-1. The horse had a total win probability of 20.82%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2. Importantly, the horse projected fairly strongly in both E1 and E2 with win estimates of 22.3% and 42.9% while having a strong COMP estimate of 35.8% (2-1 equivalent). Where the pool really misevaluated the horse was with win percentage, which with a value of 23.95 equated to about 3-1 strength against this field. Again, the horse went off at 15-1. In the race, Smithwick’s Spice went gate to wire, digging in and holding off #2 Doctor Jeff at 2-1. The horse paid $33.00 for the win. The program also had the tri-fecta order correct (8-2-3), with a $0.50 tri-fecta paying $119.60.

The program did very well today in races at Aqueduct. In two out of the five non-maiden races (6th and 8th), the program had the exacta order reversed. The $1 exacta in the 6th paid $13.90 and in the 8th $25.50. A $1 ex. box strategy for those races would have returned 294%.

6th – $16K clm at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up

8th – $10K clm at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up.

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With the Breeders Cup going on concurrently, the Turf Program had a nice result in the 4th race at Gulftream, a $60K maiden claiming race at 1 1/6 off the turf for three-year-olds. The first selection was #10 Siciliano with a total win probability of 20.78%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2. The horse went off at 8-1. In the race, Siciliano, with its 100% LP win estimate, came up late at the wire. The horse paid $19.20 for the win.

The program had a number of good results today on the first day of the Breeders Cup at Del Mar. In the 4th race (the $200K After Alliance Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf) and with a fourteen horse field, the Turf Program had the winner with its first selection in #10 Chasing Liberty at 6-1. The horse had a total win probability of 16.3%, translating into theoretical odds of 5-1. Chasing Liberty had the highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 22.8% (4-1 equivalent). Chasing Liberty paid $15.60 for the win.

In the 9th race, the $2 mil. Breeders Cup Juvenile (1 1/6 mi. on the dirt) the Grey program had the order of the exacta with its first two selections in reverse. The second selection, #6 Citizen Bull at 15-1, came in first and the 1st selection, #7 Gaming at 6-1, came in second. The $2 exacta paid $142.20.