By The program had a very nice result in the 10th at Gulfstream, a $75K Handicap at 5 1/2 f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, with its first selection of #10 Smithwick’s Spice, who won at 15-1. The horse had a total win probability of 20.82%, translating into theoretical odds of 7-2. Importantly, the horse projected fairly strongly in both E1 and E2 with win estimates of 22.3% and 42.9% while having a strong COMP estimate of 35.8% (2-1 equivalent). Where the pool really misevaluated the horse was with win percentage, which with a value of 23.95 equated to about 3-1 strength against this field. Again, the horse went off at 15-1. In the race, Smithwick’s Spice went gate to wire, digging in and holding off #2 Doctor Jeff at 2-1. The horse paid $33.00 for the win. The program also had the tri-fecta order correct (8-2-3), with a $0.50 tri-fecta paying $119.60.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 