Day: December 6, 2024

In tomorrow’s $500K G2 Cigar Mile at Aqueduct, run at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, the program is favoring #9 Senor Buscador with a total win probability of 42.94%, translating into theoretical odds of 6-5. The horse projects first in final speed with a 46.1% (along with a relatively low CV of 5.92%) while also having the highest Win Percentage in the field at 67.6%, thanks to his win earlier this year in the $20 mil. Saudi Cup. Most recently, he finished fifth in the Breeders Cup Classic at Del Mar in early November. If Senor Buscador is removed as a selection, then the race appears to favor #5 Mullikin and #1 Book’em Danno due to their final speed projections. #7 Locked has some value at 6-1 on the M/L because of his 24.4% win percentage (3-1 equivalent) after Senor Buscador’s removal. This is done because of his high win percentage, which distorts the overall picture.

We give a shout-out today to owner and Handicap Wizard user, Vito Cipriano, whose horse, #3 Hatch, came in second today in the 2nd race at Aqueduct, a $50k Allowance at 6 1/2 f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up. Going off at 18-1, Hatch had theoretical odds of 6-1 because of decent SPD and E1 and E2 win estimates of 15.5%, 15.1% and 23.6%. The horse also had a fairly strong COMP value of 23.7% (projecting almost 3-1 strength). In the race, Hatch made a five-wide move wide around the far turn and then came up well on the inside behind #4 Beaver State to finish second. The horse paid $12.00 for the place.