The program had an excellent result in the 10th race at Aqueduct, a $35K maiden race for three-year-olds, with the second selection, #6 Just Be Honest at 18-1. The horse had a total win probability of 19.6%, converting into theoretical odds of 4-1. Just Be Honest projected first in SPD (final speed) with a win estimate of 36.4% (2-1 strength) while having elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 16.62%. Additionally, the horse had a 73.% COMP value (2-5 strength), which could partly be due to elevated CV but is a strong percentage nonetheless. In other words, the horse projected 2-5 on a component level in the aggregate in the simulation while going off at 18-1! That’s some serious mispricing by the pool. In the race, Just Be Honest led past the half-mile point and then put away #4 First Trumpet down the stretch. The horse paid $38.60 for the win. With the program having the exacta order reversed with its first two selections of Just Be Honest and First Trumpet, the $1 exacta paid $136.00! The program also had the tri-fecta horses with its top three selections, including with #3 Very Satisfactory at 5-2 as the third place horse.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 