Day: December 21, 2024

The Grey Program nearly had the winner in the G3 $165K Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its first selection of #2 Tumbarumba at 8-5. The horse had a total win probability of 20.92%, converting to theoretical odds of 7-2. In the race, Tumbarumba took the lead coming out of the far turn, only to be overtaken down the stretch by long-short #10 Rocket Can at 10-1. The program valued Rocket Can even weaker at 18-1, having only its Win Percentage to show for himself at 13.5% (about 8-1 equivalent strength).

The Turf Program had a good result in the finale at Gulfstream today, the G3 Suwannee River Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares, with its first selection of #7 Be Your Best at 5-1. The horse had a total win probability of 21.75%, translating into odds of 7-2. Be Your Best projected first in final speed with a 51.1% win estimate (1-1) strength while having the second highest win percentage at 15.3%. With a Coefficient of Variance of 4.41%, Be Your Best’s risk was low, making its speed projection more reliable, which it turned out to be. In the race, Be Your Best stalked from the second position at the half-mile mark before making a move around the far turn and taking the lead down the stretch. Be Your Best paid $12.00 for the win.

The dirt program had another nice result at Tampa, this time in the 7th, a $25K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up with its first selection of #1 Catire Vizcaya at 2-1. The horse had a total win probability of 29.44%, converting into theoretical odds of 2-1, which is where the Catire Vizcaya went off. In the race, Catire Vizcaya went wire-to-wire to win by two lengths.

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The program had a nice exacta result in the 4th race at Tampa today, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up, with its first two selections of #2 Humor Sense at 9-5 and #4 Shamu at 5-1. The $1 exacta paid $10.80. The program also had the tri-fecta orrder correct with #9 American Peaches as the third selection at 6-1. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $21.50.

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