Month: December 2024

There was a good opportunity in the 9th at Gulfstream today, a $20K OC at 5 1/2 f on the dirt for three-year-old fillies an mares, with #7 David’s Rose at 34-1. The program valued her stronger at 10-1, thanks to strong projections in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 58.3% and 27.4%. David’s Rose also had a strong COMP value at 38.9% (2-1 strength) with average risk according to its CV value of 6.59% . In the race, David’s Rose accelerated around the far turn and took and held on to the lead down the stretch. The horse paid $70.80 for the win. This race showcases the accuracy and power of projections with the Handicap Wizard’s simulation engine.

The Turf Program had an excellent result in the second graded stakes race at Gulfstream today in the 8th, the $140K Via Borghese at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares, with its first selection of #9 La Mehana at 2-1. The horse had a total win probability of 21.00%, converting to odds of about 7-2. La Mehana projected first in SPD with a 29.9% win estimate (2-1 strength) as well as first in LP with a 59.8% win estimate (3-5 strength). In the race, La Mehana’s dominant late speed proved decisive with the horse holding on for the win down the stretch. The horse paid $6.60 or the win. The favorite, #8 Forever After All at 1-1, came in second.

The Grey Program nearly had the winner in the G3 $165K Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its first selection of #2 Tumbarumba at 8-5. The horse had a total win probability of 20.92%, converting to theoretical odds of 7-2. In the race, Tumbarumba took the lead coming out of the far turn, only to be overtaken down the stretch by long-short #10 Rocket Can at 10-1. The program valued Rocket Can even weaker at 18-1, having only its Win Percentage to show for himself at 13.5% (about 8-1 equivalent strength).

The Turf Program had a good result in the finale at Gulfstream today, the G3 Suwannee River Stakes, run at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares, with its first selection of #7 Be Your Best at 5-1. The horse had a total win probability of 21.75%, translating into odds of 7-2. Be Your Best projected first in final speed with a 51.1% win estimate (1-1) strength while having the second highest win percentage at 15.3%. With a Coefficient of Variance of 4.41%, Be Your Best’s risk was low, making its speed projection more reliable, which it turned out to be. In the race, Be Your Best stalked from the second position at the half-mile mark before making a move around the far turn and taking the lead down the stretch. Be Your Best paid $12.00 for the win.

The dirt program had another nice result at Tampa, this time in the 7th, a $25K claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up with its first selection of #1 Catire Vizcaya at 2-1. The horse had a total win probability of 29.44%, converting into theoretical odds of 2-1, which is where the Catire Vizcaya went off. In the race, Catire Vizcaya went wire-to-wire to win by two lengths.

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