The program had a nice exacta result in the 4th race at Tampa today, a $8K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares three-years-old and up, with its first two selections of #2 Humor Sense at 9-5 and #4 Shamu at 5-1. The $1 exacta paid $10.80. The program also had the tri-fecta orrder correct with #9 American Peaches as the third selection at 6-1. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $21.50.
The program had an excellent result in the 10th race at Aqueduct, a $35K maiden race for three-year-olds, with the second selection, #6 Just Be Honest at 18-1. The horse had a total win probability of 19.6%, converting into theoretical odds of 4-1. Just Be Honest projected first in SPD (final speed) with a win estimate of 36.4% (2-1 strength) while having elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 16.62%. Additionally, the horse had a 73.% COMP value (2-5 strength), which could partly be due to elevated CV but is a strong percentage nonetheless. In other words, the horse projected 2-5 on a component level in the aggregate in the simulation while going off at 18-1! That’s some serious mispricing by the pool. In the race, Just Be Honest led past the half-mile point and then put away #4 First Trumpet down the stretch. The horse paid $38.60 for the win. With the program having the exacta order reversed with its first two selections of Just Be Honest and First Trumpet, the $1 exacta paid $136.00! The program also had the tri-fecta horses with its top three selections, including with #3 Very Satisfactory at 5-2 as the third place horse.
The Turf Program had a nice result in the 10th at Tampa, a $16K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares, with its first selection of #9 She’s a Keeper at 16-1, who had a total win probability of 23.82%, translating into theoretical odds of 3-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 29.7% with a Coefficient of Variance 6.82%, indicating average to below average risk. The horse had E1 and E2 estimates of 87.4% and 38% while having a COMP value of 47.6%, suggesting about 1-1 strength. In the race, She’s a Keeper led early on and nearly held on to the win down the stretch but was caught right at the wire by #10 Mrs. Katz, who was the third selection at 9-2. She’s a Keeper paid $14.20 for the place while the $1 exacta paid $67.
Race 10 at Aqueduct today, a $40K maiden race for two-year olds fillies, saw a great opportunity with #5 Backwater at 6-1, who had a total win probability of 25.29%, translating into theoretical odds of 3-1. The horse projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 84.3%, indicating 2-5 strength. In the race, Backwater had an easy time going wire to wire, winning by five lengths. The horse paid $14.20 for the win.
In the 7th race at Aqueduct, the program had the exacta order correct with its selections of #5 Caldwell Luvs Gold at 7-5 and #7 Striker Has Dial at 3-1. Down the stretch, Striker Has Dial was leading until Caldwell Luvs Gold turned accelerated in the center of the track and took down the leader. The $1 exacta paid $7.60.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 