The Grey Program had a nice result today in the 4th at Tampa, a $5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up, with its first two selections of #6 Supreme Dominance at 5-2 and #4 Breadman at 5-1. That was the exacta order. In the race, Breadman led through much of the way but was caught late by #6 Supreme Dominance down the stretch. The $1 ex. paid $19.50.
The Turf Program had an excellent result in the 10th race at Gulfstream today, the $500K Pegasus WC Fillies and Mares Invitational, with its first two selections of #10 Sacred Wish at 7-2 and #3 Be Your Best at 7-1. Those were the exacta horses with the order reversed. In the race, Be Your Best led all the way and was challenged late by Sacred Wish at the wire, who came in second. The $1 exa. paid $35.70.
White Abbario may be the sleeper horse in the Pegasus World Cup based on recent form because of how the horse placed second in a G3 race at 7f on Dec. 28 at Gulfstream. In spite of that disappointing performance, the Handicap Wizard still rates White Abbario as the second selection when he is only 1% behind Saudi Crown in terms of total win probability (17.22% versus 16.29%). But there are some things going for White Abbario, including strong works at Gulfstream this month (0:48 over 4f on Jan. Jan 16 and 0:47 over 4f on Jan. 9), a 75% lifetime win percentage at Gulfstream (6 wins in 8 starts, including the Florida Derby in 2022), a solid win percentage at 18.9% (4-1 strength in terms of money wins adjusted for stakes), and the highest LP projection in the field at 48.5% win estimate. The latter is particularly important for the distance of the race at 1 1/8 mi when no other horse come close to having the late pace strength. Even though White Abbario finished second in his last race, he still recorded a LP figure of 107. Therefore, White Abbario is primed for the longer distance and should be in better form in this race when this will be his third race after a layoff in the fall 2024. He also has a jockey advantage with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, who has won the Pegasus World Cup twice previously.
Tomorrow at Gulfstream is the $3 mil. Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The race features a number of G1 winners, including Lousiana Derby and Pennysylvania Derby winner, #2 Saudi Crown, BC Classic winner, #4, White Abarrio, Santa Anita Derby Winner, #6 Stronghold, Kentucky Derby winner, #9 Mystik Dan, and Breeders Futurity and Cigar Mile winner, #11 Locked. The program has #2 Saudi Crown at 5-2 on the M/L as its first selection with a total win probability of 17.06%, translating to theoretical odds of 9-2. The horse projects third in SPD with a win estimate of 19.0% while having the highest win percentage of 22.3%. Second is #4 White Abarrio at 3-1 on the M/L with a total win probability of 16.59%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-1. White Abarrio projects first in LP with a win estimate of 48.0% (about 1-1 strength). Third is #1 Mixto at 10-1 on the M/L with a total win probability of 15.11%. That translates to theoretical odds of 5-1. Mixto projects first in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 51.3% and 50.7% as well as has the highest COMP value at 39.3% while the horse’s risk is reasonably low with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.65%. Mixto’s win percentage is low, though, at 3.3%, adjusted for stakes. Fourth is the M/L favorite, #11 Locked at 5-2, who has a total win probability of 13.75%, converting to theoretical odds of 6-1. Locked projects first in SPD with a win estimate of 29.7% (5-2 strength) while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 5.71%. In the final analysis, this is a wide open race with no horse having theoretical odds lower than 9-2. Following the final speed projections, the race appears between #2 Saudi Crown (19% SPD), #6 Stronghold (23.7% SPD) and #11 Locked (29.7%), with Saudi Crown having the highest win percentage among them at 22.3%. Saudi Crown finished first in his last race in a $100K stakes race at 1/16 mi. at the Fair Grounds in late December. Stronghold is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Malibu Stakes at 7f at Santa Anita in late December while Locked won his last race in the Cigar Mile at 1 mi. at Aqueduct in late December. As Gulfstream is a speed favoring track, #2 may have a slight edge over these other two horses with E1 and E2 estimates of 4.7% and 17.6%. White Abbario certainly has a chance with his high LP projection of 48.0%, but his form is not top after he only came in second in his last race, a G3 race at 7f at Gulfstream, in December. The final selections are #2 Saudi Crown, #4 White Abbario, #1 Mixto and #11 Locked.
When it comes to winning with long shots, it’s often seen as an act of magic akin to pulling a rabbit out of a hat. One place with the Handicap Wizard to look for long shot prospects is in the LP projection, like in the 7th race at Oaklawn today, a $40K alw race at 6ft on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The horse with the longest odds in this race was #3 Go West at 37-1, who had a total win probability of 7.83%, translating into odds of 12-1. However, the horse projected first in LP with a win estimate of 43.2% (about 7-5 strength), earning itself a FIT2 checkmark for its statistical superiority in that metric. In the race, this is exactly what happened with Go West turning on the afterburner down the stretch to come up for second at a big price, paying $27.40 for the place. Thanks to the Handicap Wizard’s projections, this user was able to see that late pace strength with the heavily discounted horse horse and take advantage of it.
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