Day: January 5, 2025

The program had the winner with its first selections in two graded stakes races at Gulfstream today, the $165K Mucho Macho Man Stakes for three-year-olds in the 10th and the $165K Ginger Brew Stakes for three-year-olds fillies in the 11th. In the Mucho Macho Man, the Grey Program had #1 Guns Loaded at 6-5 first, who had a total win probability of 28.4% (5-2 theoretical odds). And in the Ginger Brew, the Turf Program had #10 Nitrogen at 9-5 first, who had a total win probability of 29.58% (almost 2-1 theoretical odds). Both the horses were favorites in their race and underlays. Guns Loaded paid $4.60 and Nitrogen $5.60 for the win.

$165K Mucho Macho Man Stakes

$165K Ginger Brew Stakes

The Turf Program had another good result today, this time in the 8th race at the Fairgrounds, a $59K allowance race run at 5f on the turf for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #Numero Seis at 6-1 with a total win probability of 29.69%, translating to theoretical odds of 2-1. The horse projected second in final speed with a win estimate of 25.1% but had high E1 and E2 estimates of 71.2% and 49.4% along with a 45% COMP (equating to 6-5 strength) and 25.3% win percentage (3-1 strength with money wins). The horse’s speed profile with superior E1 and E2 projections fitted the 5f distance of the race extremely well. In the race, Numero Seis led from start to finish, digging in well in the last sixteenth. The horse paid $14 for the win.

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