By When it comes to winning with long shots, it’s often seen as an act of magic akin to pulling a rabbit out of a hat. One place with the Handicap Wizard to look for long shot prospects is in the LP projection, like in the 7th race at Oaklawn today, a $40K alw race at 6ft on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The horse with the longest odds in this race was #3 Go West at 37-1, who had a total win probability of 7.83%, translating into odds of 12-1. However, the horse projected first in LP with a win estimate of 43.2% (about 7-5 strength), earning itself a FIT2 checkmark for its statistical superiority in that metric. In the race, this is exactly what happened with Go West turning on the afterburner down the stretch to come up for second at a big price, paying $27.40 for the place. Thanks to the Handicap Wizard’s projections, this user was able to see that late pace strength with the heavily discounted horse horse and take advantage of it.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 