Pegasus World Cup Preview, Fri., Jan 24

Tomorrow at Gulfstream is the $3 mil. Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up. The race features a number of G1 winners, including Lousiana Derby and Pennysylvania Derby winner, #2 Saudi Crown, BC Classic winner, #4, White Abarrio, Santa Anita Derby Winner, #6 Stronghold, Kentucky Derby winner, #9 Mystik Dan, and Breeders Futurity and Cigar Mile winner, #11 Locked. The program has #2 Saudi Crown at 5-2 on the M/L as its first selection with a total win probability of 17.06%, translating to theoretical odds of 9-2. The horse projects third in SPD with a win estimate of 19.0% while having the highest win percentage of 22.3%. Second is #4 White Abarrio at 3-1 on the M/L with a total win probability of 16.59%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-1. White Abarrio projects first in LP with a win estimate of 48.0% (about 1-1 strength). Third is #1 Mixto at 10-1 on the M/L with a total win probability of 15.11%. That translates to theoretical odds of 5-1. Mixto projects first in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 51.3% and 50.7% as well as has the highest COMP value at 39.3% while the horse’s risk is reasonably low with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.65%. Mixto’s win percentage is low, though, at 3.3%, adjusted for stakes. Fourth is the M/L favorite, #11 Locked at 5-2, who has a total win probability of 13.75%, converting to theoretical odds of 6-1. Locked projects first in SPD with a win estimate of 29.7% (5-2 strength) while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 5.71%. In the final analysis, this is a wide open race with no horse having theoretical odds lower than 9-2. Following the final speed projections, the race appears between #2 Saudi Crown (19% SPD), #6 Stronghold (23.7% SPD) and #11 Locked (29.7%), with Saudi Crown having the highest win percentage among them at 22.3%. Saudi Crown finished first in his last race in a $100K stakes race at 1/16 mi. at the Fair Grounds in late December. Stronghold is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Malibu Stakes at 7f at Santa Anita in late December while Locked won his last race in the Cigar Mile at 1 mi. at Aqueduct in late December. As Gulfstream is a speed favoring track, #2 may have a slight edge over these other two horses with E1 and E2 estimates of 4.7% and 17.6%. White Abbario certainly has a chance with his high LP projection of 48.0%, but his form is not top after he only came in second in his last race, a G3 race at 7f at Gulfstream, in December. The final selections are #2 Saudi Crown, #4 White Abbario, #1 Mixto and #11 Locked.