Month: January 2025

The Program had an excellent result in the 6th race at Aqueduct today, a $50K Alw. race at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt, having the tri-fecta order with its first three selections. These were #4 Strapped at 10-1, #1 Frizzante at 1-1 and #7 Traffic Master at 5-1. Strapped re-rallied from off the pace to catch #1 Frizzante at the wire but unofficially Frizzante held on for the win. However, upon a steward’s inquiry into interference by Frizzante down the stretch, the tri-fecta order was reversed to #4 Strapped, #1 Frizzante and #7 Traffic Master. Strapped paid $22.20 for the win while the $0.50 tri-fecta paid $71.25.

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The Grey program had a good result in the 4th race at Aqueduct today, a $25K claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt four four-year-olds, with its 1st selection of #7 Golden Purchase at 13-1. The horse projected 2nd in SPD with a win estimate of 29.3% (about 2-1 strength equivalent) and 1st in E1 and E2 with values of 55.3% and 60.2%. Though Golden Purchase projected 0% in LP, his COMP value of 45.9% showed the horse had 7-5 strength on a component level in the aggregate. At 13-1 and with a total win probability 21.30% (7-2 equivalent), Golden Purchase was getting about 7-2 to place. In the race, Golden Purchased stalked from the third position before making a three-wide move around the far turn when he dueled with #6 Final Denile down the stretch and kept on for second. Golden Purchase paid $9.70 for the place.

There was a nice result for the program in the 5th race at Gulfstream today, a $25K Clm at 5 1/2f on the dirt for four-year-old and up. The first selection was #2 Ortus at 6-1, who had a total winning probability of 23.22%, translating to odds of 7-2. The horse projected first in SPD with a win estimate of 34.9% (about 2-1 strength) while having the second highest win percentage at 19.4% (4-1 strength). Along with projecting first in SPD, the horse also had low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 5.27%. In the race, Ortus came from off the pace down the stretch to win in a dead heat with #9 Kantknowitall at 5-2. Ortus paid $6.40 for the win in the dead heat and $7.20 for the place.

The program had the winner with its first selections in two graded stakes races at Gulfstream today, the $165K Mucho Macho Man Stakes for three-year-olds in the 10th and the $165K Ginger Brew Stakes for three-year-olds fillies in the 11th. In the Mucho Macho Man, the Grey Program had #1 Guns Loaded at 6-5 first, who had a total win probability of 28.4% (5-2 theoretical odds). And in the Ginger Brew, the Turf Program had #10 Nitrogen at 9-5 first, who had a total win probability of 29.58% (almost 2-1 theoretical odds). Both the horses were favorites in their race and underlays. Guns Loaded paid $4.60 and Nitrogen $5.60 for the win.

$165K Mucho Macho Man Stakes

$165K Ginger Brew Stakes

The Turf Program had another good result today, this time in the 8th race at the Fairgrounds, a $59K allowance race run at 5f on the turf for four-year-olds and up. The first selection was #Numero Seis at 6-1 with a total win probability of 29.69%, translating to theoretical odds of 2-1. The horse projected second in final speed with a win estimate of 25.1% but had high E1 and E2 estimates of 71.2% and 49.4% along with a 45% COMP (equating to 6-5 strength) and 25.3% win percentage (3-1 strength with money wins). The horse’s speed profile with superior E1 and E2 projections fitted the 5f distance of the race extremely well. In the race, Numero Seis led from start to finish, digging in well in the last sixteenth. The horse paid $14 for the win.

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