Day: February 8, 2025

Race 2 at Tampa saw another result for the program, this time with #8 Mr. Crowley at 62-1, who had a total win probability of only 8.74% (10-1 theoretical odds) but high E2 and COMP values of 44.3% and 45.%. The latter signified that Mr. Crowley’s had about 6-5 strength with his components in the aggregate in the simulation. The winner, #6 Lamplighter Jack, had similar measures with the highest E1 and E2 values of 52.7% and 54.3% along with a 45.6%. Interestingly, the race went according to COMP with Lamplighter Jack finishing 1st at 15-1 and Mr. Crowley second at 62-1. The $1 exacta paid a whopping $827.20.

As has been discussed on previous occasions, the pool is not always efficient in setting the odds of horses. This was the case again in the 1st race at Tampa today, an $8K claiming race 1 40y on the dirt for three-year-old fillies and mares with the program’s second selection, #5 Lady’s Chant at 13-1. The horse had a 25.90% total win probability, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. Lady Chant projected first in final speed—thanks to its last race when it recorded a SPD of 70—with a win estimate of 42.2% (7-5 equivalent strength in odds) while having the highest win percentage in the field at 20.7% (4-1 equivalent strength in terms of money finishes). Though Lady’s Chant’s risk was a little high with a Coefficient of Variance of 11.82%, it was acceptable considering the potential return with the 13-1 odds. In the race, Lady’s Chant went wire to wire, with the win paying $29.40.

Here are the projections for today’s $250K Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay, a Kentucky Derby prep race, which is run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The program has #7 Poster as its first selection with a total win probability of 22.99%, converting to odds of 3-1. The horse projects second in SPD with a win estimate of 29.2% while having the highest LP value in the field at 59.6% and the second highest win percentage at 20.7%, only behind the M/L favorite, Owen’s, at 21.4%.