By As has been discussed on previous occasions, the pool is not always efficient in setting the odds of horses. This was the case again in the 1st race at Tampa today, an $8K claiming race 1 40y on the dirt for three-year-old fillies and mares with the program’s second selection, #5 Lady’s Chant at 13-1. The horse had a 25.90% total win probability, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. Lady Chant projected first in final speed—thanks to its last race when it recorded a SPD of 70—with a win estimate of 42.2% (7-5 equivalent strength in odds) while having the highest win percentage in the field at 20.7% (4-1 equivalent strength in terms of money finishes). Though Lady’s Chant’s risk was a little high with a Coefficient of Variance of 11.82%, it was acceptable considering the potential return with the 13-1 odds. In the race, Lady’s Chant went wire to wire, with the win paying $29.40.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 