The program had an excellent result in the 10th race at Oaklawn, the $500K G3 Oaklawn Mile, with its first and second selections of #3 Banishing at 8-5 and #8 Saudi Crown at 4-5. That was the order of the exacta (3-8) with the statistically superior horse outrunning the pool favorite. In the race, Saudi Crown and Banishing led one two until the far turn when Banishing made an outside move and was able to come even with Saudi Crown. Heading down the stretch, stretch the two horses dueled side by side until Banishing put away the gritty Saudi Crown inside the final sixteenth.
Another major race today is the $1 mil. G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Fountain of Youth Winner, #11 Sovereignty at 8-5 on the M/L, Holy Bull runner-up, #11 Tappan Street at 5-1, Rebel runner-up, #8 Madaket Road at 7-2. Following the M/L favorite, #11 Sovereignty is the first selection with a total win probability of 28.69%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projects 2nd in final speed with a 36.9% win estimate but has a dominating LP win estimate of 92.6%, suggesting that he will thrive at the 1 1/8 mi. distance. Second is #8 Madaket Road with a 23.78% total win probability, translating to theoretical odds of 23.78%. The horse projects significant early speed with E1 and E2 win estimates of 72.9% and 42.0% and has a high COMP value of 65.8%, indicating that the horse projects 3-5 strength on the component level in the aggregate against the field. Third is #9 Tappan Street with a total win probability of 17.35%. That equates to theoretical odds of 9-2. Tappan Street projects first in final speed with a 39.2% win chance. Fourth is #1 Neoequos with a total win probability of 9.77%. What stands out in this race is Sovereignty’s dominate late speed versus, as reflected in his LP estimate, versus Madaket Road’s high COMP value, which suggests that will have the reserve energy to sustain him beyond the early speed in E1 and E2 of 1 mi. Madaket Road’s threat is that he will run away from the field early on and coast on to victory before Sovereignty can catch him. The final selections are #11 Sovereignty, #8 Madaekt Road, #11 Tappan Street, #1 Neoequos.
Today at Oaklawn is the $1.5 mil. G1 Arkansas Derby, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Rebel Stakes winner, #8 Coal Battle, who’s undefeated in his last four starts, #6 Sandman, who came in 3nd in the Southwest and 2nd in the Rebel, Southwest winner, #5 Speed King, and maiden winner and Baffert trained, #9 Cornucopian. The program is favoring Cornucopian at 7-5 with a total win probability of 34.68%, converting to theoretical odds of 9-5. The horse projects 1st in final speed with a win chance of 70.9% while having a COMP value of 95%. Though Cornucopian projections are dominant, he is lightly run with only one start and is jumping way up in class from a $110K maiden race to the G1 Arkansas Derby. He is also stretching out from 6f to 1 1/16 mi. Second is #8 Coal Battle at 7-2 with a total win probability of 22.26%, translating to theoretical odds of 7-2. Coal Battle projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 29.1% while having slightly elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 9.86%. Coal Battle has the second highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 25.2% behind #5 Speed King’s 29%. Third is #5 Speed King, who has a total win probability of 21.62%. That’s equates to theoretical odds of 9-2, well less than the M/L of 15-1. Therefore, Speed King will be a big overlay today. Speed King regressed in his last race in the Rebel in finishing 10th after winning the Southwest at Oaklawn in late Jan. Fourth is #6 Sandman at 3-1 with a total win probability of 7.83%, equating to theoretical odds 12-1. Sandman’s LP win estimate of 12.8% does not seem to reflect his late surge at the wire in the Rebel when he nearly caught Coal King at the 1 1/16 mi distance. This race comes down to whether Cornucopian can last the 1 1/8 mi. Cornucopian’s sire, Into Mischief, won a G1 at 1 1/16 mi in a fast time of 1:40.82. Based on the projections, Cornucopian should win the race fairly easily but will be challenged by Coal King and Sandman down the stretch. Only Speed King has a slight speed advantage on Cornucopian with E1 and E2 values of 47.6% and 52.6% but will have to rate better today to competete in this race at the longer distance. The final selections are #9 Cornucopian, #8 Coal Battle, #6 Sandman and #5 Speed King.
The program had a good result today in the $200K Temperance Hill Stakes in race 10 at Oaklawn (1 1/2 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds and up), having the winner with its first selection of #11 Lambeth at 2-1. The horse had a total win probability of 22.50%, translating to odds of 3-1. In the race, Lambeth led early on through the first mile before being challenged by #6 Game Warden coming out of the far turn. Lambeth dug in in the one path down the stretch to win by two lengths. Lambeth paid $6.00 for the win. In some interations of the simulations of this race, the program had Game Warden as the second selection and the exacta order correct, 11-6. The $1 ex. paid $17.00.
The program had a nice result today in race 3 at Gulfstream, a $20K OC at 5f on the dirt four four-year-olds, with its second selection, #5 Whirlwind Ride at 9-1. The horse had a total win probability of 19.26%, converting to theoretical odds of about 4-1. Besides projecting early speed with E1 and E2 estimates of 15.5% and 17.3%, Whirlwind Ride had the highest COMP value at 43.2% (7-5 relative strength on a component level in the aggregate) and win percentage at 28.6% (5-2 equivalent). In the race, Whirlwind Ride led through the opening quarter and held on to win by a length. The horse paid $21.60 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 