Day: March 22, 2025

Today at the Fairgrounds is the $1 mil. G2 Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features the undefeated Sam F. Davis winner, #1 John Hancock at 7-2 on the M/L, Lecomte runner-up and Risen Star Stakes show finisher, #6 Built at 4-1, Sunland Derby runner-up, #5 Caldera, and Risen Star Stakes runner-up, #2 Chuck of Gold. The program is favoring #1 John Hancock as its first selection, who has a total win probability of 20.76%, converting to odds of 7-2. That is exactly were he is on the M/L. The horse projects second in final speed with a 28.6% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 16.5%. The second selection is #6 Built with a total win probability of 16.22%, translating to odds of 5-1. Built projects third in final speed with a 20.5% win estimate and has early speed with E1 and E2 estimates of 21.2% and 35.5%. Third is #5 Caldera with a total win probability of 15.35%, converting to theoretical odds of 6-1. Fourth is #3 Tiztastic, who has a total win probability 12.16% but has the highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 27.2% (equating to 3-1 strength). Tiztastic placed 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill in Nov. as a two-year-old and 3rd again in the Southwest at the end of Jan. In the final analysis, this race is wide up with no horse having shorter odds than John Hancock at 7-2. The final speed projections of John Hancock, Built and Caldera are all believable due to their horses having relatively low risk, as indicated by their Coefficient of Variances below 7%. John Hancock has recorded the highest final speed figure in the field at 97 and that was in winning the Sam F. Davis at 1 1/6 mi. Next is Caldera, who recorded a 96 in the 1 1/16 mi. Sunland Derby in finishing second, a race which he lost by only a nose. Both horses finished their last races in duels with other horses with John Hancock digging in to beat Owen Almighty by a length. This is in contrast to Built, who finished 3rd and 10 lenghths behind the winner in the Risen Star, Magnitude. The Brad Cox horse, #9 Instant Replay, is worth mentioning for winning his last race, a $100K OC at 1 1/16 mi. in the Fairgrounds in Feb. Instant Replay projects the highest LP with a 38.2% win estimate, which may prove decisive in this longer, 1 3/16 mi. race. The selections are #1 John Hancock, #6 Built, #5 Caldera and #3 Tiztastic.