By Another major race today is the $1 mil. G1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Fountain of Youth Winner, #11 Sovereignty at 8-5 on the M/L, Holy Bull runner-up, #11 Tappan Street at 5-1, Rebel runner-up, #8 Madaket Road at 7-2. Following the M/L favorite, #11 Sovereignty is the first selection with a total win probability of 28.69%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse projects 2nd in final speed with a 36.9% win estimate but has a dominating LP win estimate of 92.6%, suggesting that he will thrive at the 1 1/8 mi. distance. Second is #8 Madaket Road with a 23.78% total win probability, translating to theoretical odds of 23.78%. The horse projects significant early speed with E1 and E2 win estimates of 72.9% and 42.0% and has a high COMP value of 65.8%, indicating that the horse projects 3-5 strength on the component level in the aggregate against the field. Third is #9 Tappan Street with a total win probability of 17.35%. That equates to theoretical odds of 9-2. Tappan Street projects first in final speed with a 39.2% win chance. Fourth is #1 Neoequos with a total win probability of 9.77%. What stands out in this race is Sovereignty’s dominate late speed versus, as reflected in his LP estimate, versus Madaket Road’s high COMP value, which suggests that will have the reserve energy to sustain him beyond the early speed in E1 and E2 of 1 mi. Madaket Road’s threat is that he will run away from the field early on and coast on to victory before Sovereignty can catch him. The final selections are #11 Sovereignty, #8 Madaekt Road, #11 Tappan Street, #1 Neoequos.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 