Month: March 2025

Today at the Fairgrounds is the $1 mil. G2 Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The field features the undefeated Sam F. Davis winner, #1 John Hancock at 7-2 on the M/L, Lecomte runner-up and Risen Star Stakes show finisher, #6 Built at 4-1, Sunland Derby runner-up, #5 Caldera, and Risen Star Stakes runner-up, #2 Chuck of Gold. The program is favoring #1 John Hancock as its first selection, who has a total win probability of 20.76%, converting to odds of 7-2. That is exactly were he is on the M/L. The horse projects second in final speed with a 28.6% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 16.5%. The second selection is #6 Built with a total win probability of 16.22%, translating to odds of 5-1. Built projects third in final speed with a 20.5% win estimate and has early speed with E1 and E2 estimates of 21.2% and 35.5%. Third is #5 Caldera with a total win probability of 15.35%, converting to theoretical odds of 6-1. Fourth is #3 Tiztastic, who has a total win probability 12.16% but has the highest win percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 27.2% (equating to 3-1 strength). Tiztastic placed 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill in Nov. as a two-year-old and 3rd again in the Southwest at the end of Jan. In the final analysis, this race is wide up with no horse having shorter odds than John Hancock at 7-2. The final speed projections of John Hancock, Built and Caldera are all believable due to their horses having relatively low risk, as indicated by their Coefficient of Variances below 7%. John Hancock has recorded the highest final speed figure in the field at 97 and that was in winning the Sam F. Davis at 1 1/6 mi. Next is Caldera, who recorded a 96 in the 1 1/16 mi. Sunland Derby in finishing second, a race which he lost by only a nose. Both horses finished their last races in duels with other horses with John Hancock digging in to beat Owen Almighty by a length. This is in contrast to Built, who finished 3rd and 10 lenghths behind the winner in the Risen Star, Magnitude. The Brad Cox horse, #9 Instant Replay, is worth mentioning for winning his last race, a $100K OC at 1 1/16 mi. in the Fairgrounds in Feb. Instant Replay projects the highest LP with a 38.2% win estimate, which may prove decisive in this longer, 1 3/16 mi. race. The selections are #1 John Hancock, #6 Built, #5 Caldera and #3 Tiztastic.

The program did well in the 1st races at Tampa Bay and Gulfstream today, having the winners in both with its first selectoins. At Tampa, #7 Indo Maria at 8-5 was the first selection with a total probabilities of 29.49%, converting to theoretical odds of 2-1. The second selection was #5 Smart Joker at 5-2, who had a total win probability of 25.64%, which converted to theoretical odds of 5-2. That was the order of finish (7-5), with #7 Indo Maria holding off Smart Joker late for the win. Not only did the program have the exacta, it hit the tri-fecta cold with #6 Point Liam being the third selection. Indo Maria paid $5.20 for the win.

At Gulfstream, the program had the winner with its first selection of #1 Come Dream with me at 5-2. The horse had a total win probability of 30.58%, converting to odds of 2-1. Come Dream projected strong late speed with a LP win estimate of 42.3%, which he showed in the race down the stretch, as well as a high COMP value at 52.9% (4-5 equivalent strength on a component level in the simulation). Come Dream paid $7.40 for the win.

The program had positive results today at Parx, winning five out of ten races with first selections. These were in the 4th with #11 Jardini ($5.20), the 5th with #5 Kobe B ($3.60), the 6th with #4 Real Conviction ($4.20), the 7th with #3 Traders Luck ($3.40), and the 9th with #5 Eclair Blanc ($5.80). For these results, the program had a ROI of +11.0%.

Click to access prx0311.pdf

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/RaceCardIndexPRX031125USA-EQB.html

The program had excellent results at Tampa Bay today on Tampa Bay Derby Day, having winners with its first selections in six out of twelve races, including in the 1st (#9 King Miano – $5.20), 4th (#10 Fundamentally – $19), 5th (#8 Skippylongstocking – $3.20), 7th (#7 Zulu Kingdom – $5.20), #9th (#9 Saffron Moon – $4.20), 10th (#10 Nitrogen – $5.00) and 12th (#5 Native Rose – $13.80). The total ROI was 131.00% for those twelve races.

Full Card Results for Tampa Bay

Click to access tam0308.pdf

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/RaceCardIndexTAM030825USA-EQB.html

Race 4 – Tampa Bay

One particularly good result with the Turf Program was in the 4th, a $53K Allowance race at 1 1/8 on the turf for four-year-old fillies and mares, with the first selection, #10 Fundamentally at 8-1. The horse had a total win probability of 27.63%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-2. The horse had the highest win percentage at 25.5% while having a high COMP value of 57.0% (4-5 relative strength) and low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 5.5%. In the race, Fundamentally stalked from the second position behind the long shot, #5 Runaway Lights, until the half mile mark before making a move to the outside around the far turn. The horse took the lead coming into the stretch and held on to win by three quarters of a length. Fundamentally paid $19 for the win.

The program had an excellent result in the 6th race today at Tampa Bay, a $32K optional claiming race at 7f on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies, with its first selection of #5 Costa Amalfitana at 6-1. The horse had a total win probability of 24.62%, translating to theoretical odds of 3-1. Costa Amalfitana projected first in final speed with a 47.7% win estimate while having elevated risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 17.02. In the case of this race, risk went in favor of Costa Amalfitana, who closed nicely down the stretch to get the win as an overlay. Costa Amalfitana paid $14.40 for the win.