Month: April 2025

The program got off to a good start on Churchill’s opening day in the first race, a $16K claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds, having the winner with its first selection, #5 Show Time, at 7-2. The horse had a total win probability of 25.53%, translating to theoretical odds of 5-2. Show Time projected strongly in E1 and E2 with win estimates of 95.9% and 80.% while having the second highest win percentage at 18.5%. Additionally, the Show Time had a exceedingly high COMP value of 83.9%, indicating significant strength for the horse on a component level in the aggregate (E1+E2+LP) in the simulation. In the race, Show Time broke well and stalked behind #7 Couperin at 10-1 through the opening mile before accelerating along the rail and taking the lead. The order continued this way until the finish with Show Time winning by a length. Show Time paid $9.42 for the win.

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Race 5

In race 5, the program had another good result, having the exacta horses among the second and third selections with #1 Fun to Run at 2-1 and #5 United Forever at 5-1. The $1 exacta paid $17.76. #10 Lady Riley was a false favorite because of its high risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 16.77%.

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The program had a nice result in the 10th race at Parx today, a $25K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, having the exacta order correct with its first two selections of #9 Shetalkstomuch at 2-1 and #6 Love to Eat at 11-1. Love to Eat led coming out of the far turn but Shetalkstomuch rallied from off the pace to catch Love to Eat in time. The #1 ex. paid #22.60.

Another good result was in the 7th at Aqueduct, a $76K allowance race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its firstion selection, #6 Friend of the Devil at 4-1, who won against two favorites. Friend of the Devil had a total win probability of 36.76%, translating to odds of 8-5. The horse projected first in final speed with a total win estimate of 66.1% (3-5 equivalent strength on turf) while having the second highest win percentage at 24.2%. Notably, the horse only had one set of data points on turf but that was enough to see its strength. Friend of the Devil paid $10.20 for the win.

The Grey program had a very nice result in the 9th race today at Santa Anita, a $20K optional claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, having the winner with its first selection of #13 Big Celebration at 12-1. The horse had a total win probability of 24.59%, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. Big Celebration projected in final speed with a win estimate of 34.5% while having a COMP value of 59%, indicating 4-5 strength on a component level in the simulation against the field. In the race, Big Celebration stalked from well off the pace until making a move wide into the half mile mark. The horse continued to gain momentum around the far turn and then took the lead from $10 Lady Monclaire coming into the stretch. Big Celebration held on for the win in the upset. Big Celebration paid $28.80 for the win. This race illustrated once again the advantage to having a good quantitative program like the Handicap Wizard that can identify strength in undervalued horses.

Another good turf result was seen in the 5th race at Tampa, a $53K allowance race at 1 mi. on the turf for four-year-old fillies and mares, with the 1st selection, #9 Dreaming of Abba at 2-1. The horse had a total win probability of 31.52%, converting to odds of 2-1. Dreaming Abba projected 1st in final speed with a 65.8% (3-5 equivalent strength in odds) win estimate while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 3.63%. Dreaming of Abba turned in a gritty performance, weaving through traffic coming out of the far turn and accelerating down the strength to win by a neck in an exciting finish. The horse paid $6.20 for the win. The 2-1 theoretical odds shows again how accurate the program is in exactly matching the live odds of the horse through its combination of projections and historical win percentage with money finishes.