Today at Aqueduct is the $750K G2 Wood Memorial, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Withers winner, #2 Captain Cook, RB Lewis runner-up, #1 Rodriguez, Gotham runner-up, #5 Sand Devil, and Tampa Bay Derby third-place finisher, #6, Hill Road. The program is favoring #2 Captain Cook at 3-1 with a total win probability of 23.56%, equating to theoretical odds of 3-1. Captain Cook projects 1st in final speed with a win estimate of 46% (6-5 equivalent strength) while having average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.73%. The second selection is #6 Hill Road at 4-1, who has a total win probability of 19.99%. This converts to theoretical odds of 4-1. Hill Road is the class in the race with the highest win percentage at 21.9% (7-2 equivalent strength) and projects strongly in LP with a win estimate of 69.2%, suiting the 1 1/8 mi. distance. Third is #5 Sand Devil with a total win probability of 18.64%, equating to theoretical odds of 4-1. Sand Devil projects 2nd in final speed with a 18.9% win estimate while having a 54.6% COMP value, indicating 4-5 equivalent strength on a component level in the aggregate in the simulation. The horse has low risk with a CV of 0.00%. Fourth is #12 Omaha Omaha with a total win probability of 8.64%, converting to odds of 11-1. The horse projects 3rd in final speed with a win estimate of 15.9%. In the final analysis, Captain Cook appears to have the upper hand in this race with its SPD win estimate of 46%, who has won his last two races at Aqueduct. The M/L favorite, #1 Rodrigquez, does not look like a favorite, who has a total win probability of just 3.55%. Rodrquez has been assigned the 5-2 M/L because the horse is trained by Bob Baffert, who has done well in the past shipping his horses east, and because Rodriguez finished second to Citizen Bull in the RB Lewis Stakes. Hill Road appears to be a strong contender because of his superior LP estimate as well as for being the class in the race. Sand Devil is another horse worth considering for his high COMP value, indicating better than 1-1 strength against this field while having low risk. The horse has hardly done anything wrong with three wins and one place in four starts. The place came in the Gotham against Flood Zone, who finished first. The final selections are #2 Captain Cook, #6 Hill Road, #5 Sand Devil and #12 Omaha Omaha. Rodriguez did not make the cut.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 