Day: April 26, 2025

Another good result was in the 7th at Aqueduct, a $76K allowance race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its firstion selection, #6 Friend of the Devil at 4-1, who won against two favorites. Friend of the Devil had a total win probability of 36.76%, translating to odds of 8-5. The horse projected first in final speed with a total win estimate of 66.1% (3-5 equivalent strength on turf) while having the second highest win percentage at 24.2%. Notably, the horse only had one set of data points on turf but that was enough to see its strength. Friend of the Devil paid $10.20 for the win.

The Grey program had a very nice result in the 9th race today at Santa Anita, a $20K optional claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, having the winner with its first selection of #13 Big Celebration at 12-1. The horse had a total win probability of 24.59%, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. Big Celebration projected in final speed with a win estimate of 34.5% while having a COMP value of 59%, indicating 4-5 strength on a component level in the simulation against the field. In the race, Big Celebration stalked from well off the pace until making a move wide into the half mile mark. The horse continued to gain momentum around the far turn and then took the lead from $10 Lady Monclaire coming into the stretch. Big Celebration held on for the win in the upset. Big Celebration paid $28.80 for the win. This race illustrated once again the advantage to having a good quantitative program like the Handicap Wizard that can identify strength in undervalued horses.