By The Grey program had a very nice result in the 9th race today at Santa Anita, a $20K optional claiming race at 1 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, having the winner with its first selection of #13 Big Celebration at 12-1. The horse had a total win probability of 24.59%, converting to theoretical odds of 3-1. Big Celebration projected in final speed with a win estimate of 34.5% while having a COMP value of 59%, indicating 4-5 strength on a component level in the simulation against the field. In the race, Big Celebration stalked from well off the pace until making a move wide into the half mile mark. The horse continued to gain momentum around the far turn and then took the lead from $10 Lady Monclaire coming into the stretch. Big Celebration held on for the win in the upset. Big Celebration paid $28.80 for the win. This race illustrated once again the advantage to having a good quantitative program like the Handicap Wizard that can identify strength in undervalued horses.
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