The program had two excellent results in turf races at Gulfstream today beginning in the first with its first selection, #9 Blossoming Erudite, who won at 6-1 while having theoretical odds of 2-1. The second was with #7 Chess Master in the 7th, who also won at 6-1 while having theoretical odds of 5-2. These are textbook examples of E/V (Expected Value) positive horses that can be found with the program who have excellent changes of winning and winning at good prices. Blossoming Erudite paid $14 and Chess Master paid $16.50 for the wins. These races illustrate again the advantage to be obtained with the Turf Program, which uses only turf data instead of both dirt and turf data.
Race 1 – $35K claiming race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old-fillies
Race 7 – $25K OC at 5f on the turf for three-year-olds
The program had the winner in the G3 $400K Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three -year-olds, with its first selection in #6 Gosger at 4-1. The horse had a total win probability of 25.72%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-2. Gosger projected 1st in final speed with a 40.4% win estimate (7-5 equivalent strength in odds) while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of only 4.64%. The horse paid $10.60 for the win.
The program had a very nice result today in the 7th race at Gulfstream, a $12.5K claiming race at 6f on the dirt for three-year-old fillies, having the tri-fecta (and superfecta) order correct with its first three selections of #2 Slew Diva at 3-1 (5-2 theoretical odds), #4 Pop Rox at 7-1 (4-1 theoretical odds) and #8 United Forever at 7-1 (5-1 theoretical odds). The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $66.80 and the $0.10 superfecta $51.39.
In the $1.25 mil G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland yesterday, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, the program had the tri-fecta horses among its top four selections. The winner was #6 Burnham Square at 4-1, followed by #5 East Avenue at 9-2 and #1 River Thames at 3-1 . The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $85.69.
Today at Aqueduct is the $750K G2 Wood Memorial, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. The race features Withers winner, #2 Captain Cook, RB Lewis runner-up, #1 Rodriguez, Gotham runner-up, #5 Sand Devil, and Tampa Bay Derby third-place finisher, #6, Hill Road. The program is favoring #2 Captain Cook at 3-1 with a total win probability of 23.56%, equating to theoretical odds of 3-1. Captain Cook projects 1st in final speed with a win estimate of 46% (6-5 equivalent strength) while having average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 8.73%. The second selection is #6 Hill Road at 4-1, who has a total win probability of 19.99%. This converts to theoretical odds of 4-1. Hill Road is the class in the race with the highest win percentage at 21.9% (7-2 equivalent strength) and projects strongly in LP with a win estimate of 69.2%, suiting the 1 1/8 mi. distance. Third is #5 Sand Devil with a total win probability of 18.64%, equating to theoretical odds of 4-1. Sand Devil projects 2nd in final speed with a 18.9% win estimate while having a 54.6% COMP value, indicating 4-5 equivalent strength on a component level in the aggregate in the simulation. The horse has low risk with a CV of 0.00%. Fourth is #12 Omaha Omaha with a total win probability of 8.64%, converting to odds of 11-1. The horse projects 3rd in final speed with a win estimate of 15.9%. In the final analysis, Captain Cook appears to have the upper hand in this race with its SPD win estimate of 46%, who has won his last two races at Aqueduct. The M/L favorite, #1Rodrigquez, does not look like a favorite, who has a total win probability of just 3.55%. Rodrquez has been assigned the 5-2 M/L because the horse is trained by Bob Baffert, who has done well in the past shipping his horses east, and because Rodriguez finished second to Citizen Bull in the RB Lewis Stakes. Hill Road appears to be a strong contender because of his superior LP estimate as well as for being the class in the race. Sand Devil is another horse worth considering for his high COMP value, indicating better than 1-1 strength against this field while having low risk. The horse has hardly done anything wrong with three wins and one place in four starts. The place came in the Gotham against Flood Zone, who finished first. The final selections are #2 Captain Cook, #6 Hill Road, #5 Sand Devil and #12 Omaha Omaha. Rodriguez did not make the cut.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 