The program got off to a good start at Monmouth today in the first, a $16K maiden claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the dirt for fillies and mares three-year-olds and up, having the winner with its first selection of #6 Horseplay at 9-1. Horseplay had a total win probability of 37.59%, converting to theoretical odds of 8-5. The horse projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 62.8% while having the second high win percentage at 29.7%. Coming off the layoff, Horseplay took charge early and never looked back, winning by three lengths. Horseplay paid $20.40 for the win.
The program had winners with its first selections in two of the graded stakes races at Santa Anita today. The first was in the 7th (the $300K G1 Gamely Stakes at 1 1/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds fillies and mares) with #8 Be Your Best at 2-1 and the second in the 8th (the $200K G2 Hollywood Gold Cup at 1 1/4 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up) with #5 Skippylongstocking at 4-5. Be Your Best had a total win probability of 22.19% (7-2 theoretical odds)while Skippylongstocking had a total win probability of 39.22% (3-2 theoretical odds).
The Turf Program had a nice result in the 3rd race today at Monmouth, a $50K allowance race at 5 1/2 f on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, having the tri-fecta horses among its first three selections #5 Fadethenoise at 5-1, #8 Big Z OG at 7-2 and #3 Jungle Glow at 5-1. Both Big ZOG and Jungle Glow projected well in E1 and E2 with estimates of (43.17% and 15.4%) and (20.3% and 27.2%). That was the order of the exacta (8-3). The exacta paid $28.20 and $0.50 trifecta paid $36.80.
Today at Pimlico is the second leg of the Triple Crown in Horse Racing, the $2 mil Preakness Stakes, run at 1 3/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds. In the race is Kentucky Derby runner-up, #2 Journalism, Arkansas Derby winner, # 7 Sandman, Virginia Derby winner, #3, American Promise, Federico Tessio winner, #5 Pay Billy. As expected, the program has #2 Journalism at 7-5 as its first selection with a total win probability of 29.19%. The horse projects first in final speed with a win estimate of 42.2% and is the class in the race with an “in the money” win percentage of 34.6%. Second is #1 Goal Oriented with a total win probability of 15.62%, converting to theoretical odds of 5-1. Goal Oriented projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 22.2% (about 4-1 equivalent strength) while projecting first in LP with a win estimate of 48%. Having just two starts, Goal Oriented’s win percentage is just 5.5%, though. The third selection is #3 American Promise with a total win probability of 13.13%, translating to odds of 7-1. American Promise projects first in E1 and E2 but has the highest Coefficient of Variance at 18.69% and being bumped and recording a poor final speed figured in the Kentucky Derby. His win percentage is only 4.1%. Fourth is #8 Clever Again with a total win probability of 12.48%, converting to theoretical odds of7-1. Clever Again projects with strength across E1, E2 and LP and has a COMP value of 15.4%, signaling 6-1 strength on a component level in the simulation. In the final analysis, there is no reason to bet against Journalism who has done everything right in his career thus far except losing to Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby on the wet track against a fast pace (opening half mile was run in 0:46). Journalism’s win percentage of 34.6% (2-1 equivalent in odds) tells the tale of this horse. However, Journalism has a threat in this race from Goal Oriented, who is undefeated in two starts after recording a 104 final speed figure in a $125K OC at 1 1/6 mi. on the dirt at Churchill two weeks ago. While having to step up against much tougher competition, Goal Oriented benefits from having Bob Baffert as his trainer, who has won the Preakness more than any other trainer in eight times. When American Promise is excluded from the calculations, whose erratic performance in Kentucky Derby skews the data for the field, Goal Oriented projections become even more impressive with a COMP value of 56.4% along having a low Coefficient of Variance of 4.1%. The horse’s jockey, Flavien Prat, won the Preakness once aboard Rombauer in 2021. American Promise is a tepid third selection after getting banged up in the Kentucky Derby and finishing sixteenth and thirty eight lengths back. The field size in the Preakness is close to what he faced in the Virginia Derby when he won. American Promise too benefits from having a Preakness winning trainer in Wayne Lukas (seven wins). Like Goal Oriented, Clever Again will be stepping way up in the class after winning the $200K Hot Springs Stakes at 1 mi. at Oakland at the end of March. This is after winning his $110K maiden in February. Clever Again is sired by Triple Crown Winner, American Pharoah. The final selections are #2 Journalism, #1 Goal Oriented, #3 American Promise and #8 Clever Again.
The program had the winner yesterday in the $200K G3 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont in the 11th, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its first selection of #4 Hill Road at 2-1. Hill Road has a total win probability of 23.80%, translating to theoretical odds of 3-1. The horse projected first in LP with a dominating win estimate of 66.2% while also being the class in the race with a win percentage (in the money%), of 36.4%. In the race, Hill Road ran down the odds favorite, #8 Captain Cook at 7-5, and #5 McAfee at 7-1, down the stretch. Hill Road paid $6.10 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 