Kentucky Derby Preview, Thurs., May 1, 2025

On Saturday is the $5 mil G1 Kentucky Derby, run at 1 ¼ mi. on the dirty for three-year-olds. The race features the best three-year-olds in the country, including the favorite and Santa Anita Derby winner, Journalism, Wood Memorial Winner, Rodriguez, who is trained by Bob Baffert (Baffert has two horses in this race with Citizen Bull), Louisiana Derby winner, Tiztastic, Arkansas Derby Winner, Sandman, Fountain of Youth winner, Sovereignty, and Rebel Stakes winner, Coal Battle. The Florida Derby winner, Tappan Street, is out of the Kentucky Derby with a fractured leg. The program has #8 Journalism as the first selection with a total win probability of 20.93%, translating to theoretical odds of 7-2. That’s very close to where the horse is on the M/L at 3-1. Journalism projects first in final speed and late pace with 45.5% and 51.9% win estimates. Both those figures indicate about 1-1 strength against the field. Journalism’s win percentage of 5.1% is average for this field while his Coefficient of Variance of 8.68% indicates average risk. The second selection is #5 American Promise at 30-1 on the M/L. The horse has a total win probability of 10.36%, translating to theoretical odds of 8-1. Thanks to his recent win in the Virginia Derby, American Promise projects second in final speed with a win estimate of 23.3% (3-1 equivalent strength) and has a 17.6% COMP (5-1 equivalent strength). However, the horse has a low win percentage of only 1.8%, explaining his high M/L odds. The third selection is #19 Chunk of Gold at 30-1 on the M/L with a total win probability of 9.94%, converting to odds of 9-1. Chunk of Gold looks to be the speed in the race with E1 and E2 win estimates of 38.8% and 36.4%. The horse finished second in his last three races, all of which have been graded stakes. Most recently he finished behind Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby. That race saw a fast pace, with the first half and three-quarters of a mile being run in 46:84 and 1:11:03. Through that pace scenario, Chunk of Gold was fifth and then fourth going into the far turn before he rallied up for second in the final sixteenth. Fourth is #3 Final Gambit at 30-1 on the m/l with a total win probability of 8.31%, translating to theoretical odds of 11-1. Final Gambit projects second best in late pace with a win estimate of 41.8%, only behind Journalism’s 51.9%.

In the final analysis, Journalism is the deserving favorite at 3-1 and will likely see 2-1, 9-5 or even lower odds by post time. When it comes to the rest of the placements, that is where it becomes tricky. American Promise’s theoretical odds of 9-1 are mostly based on the horse’s speed projections but the horse is stepping way up in class against the toughest competition in the country. With a CV value of 11.66%, American Promise has elevated risk as a second selection where his true theoretical odds are higher than 9-1 and probably closer to 15-1. Chunk of Gold will have to run a lot better than he has while avoiding past mistakes of chasing too hot of pace. On the other hand, discounted speed horses tend to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby and so Chunk of Gold certainly should be in the conversation after three second place finishes against graded stakes competition. Final Gambit projects to be flying late down the stretch, but, in breaking from post three, the horse will not have the luxury of running on the outside like he did in the Jeff Ruby Stakes. The final selections are #8 Journalism, #5 American Promise, #19 Chunk of Gold, #3 Final Gambit. If Citizen Bull as the class in the race (10.6% win percentage) regains the form he had as a two-year-old, of which he has shown some signs in his pre-Derby workouts at Churchill (6f at 1:12.40), he will be a serious contender to win along with Journalism. To see the preview in full resolution, click on the encircled “i” in the bottom right-hand corner. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the center.