Here are the projections for today’s G1 $1 mil. Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for four-year-olds. The race has a stellar field, including 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Winner, #4 Sierra Leone, 2024 Kentucky Derby Winner, #5 Mystik Dan, Santa Anita Gold Cup Winner, #3 Skippylongstocking, and Dubai World Cupper winner, #6 Hit Show. Two horses that are showing value in their COMP are #1 First Mission ( 38.8%) at 4-1 and #3 Skippylongstocking (28.1%) at 6-1.
The Grey program had an excellent result in the 6th race at Belmont, a $65K claiming race at 6f on the turf for three-year-olds, having the winner with its first selection of #5 On the Ledge at 12-1. Though On the Ledge was a first time starter, the horse had theoretical odds of 3-1, projecting first in final speed with a 50.5% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 20.6% (4-1 odds equivalent). On the Ledge’s risk was slightly elevated at 9.64%. According to this data, the horse should have been no where near 12-1, showing a gross mispricing. In the race, the favorite #2 Java Buzz led through the opening quarter while On the Ledge stalked from the 3rd position along the rail. On the Ledge accelerated around the far turn before taking the lead decidedly down the stretch. On the Ledge paid $27.20 for the win. These are exactly the type of opportunities the handicapper should be patient for and then profit from.
The program had a good result yesterday in the $300K G2 Chicago Stakes at Churchill, run at 7ft on the dirt for fillies and mares four-year-old and up, having the exacta order with its 3rd and 1st selections in #5 Vahva at 2-1 and #10 Claret Beret at 10-1. Vahva was the class in the race, having the highest in the money win percentage at 26.8%, while Claret Beret projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 65.9%. In the race, Vahva took the lead down the stretch while Claret Beret ran second best.
The Turf Program had a very nice result in the 4th at Belmont at Aqueduct today, a $85K maiden claiming race at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares and up, having the exacta order correct with its first two selection of #5 Cailin Dana at 3-1 and #2 Mendee at 2-1. In the race, Cailin Dana broke through a seam down the stretch to beat Mendee by under a length. The $2 exacta paid $18.20.
One of the keys to using Pro-Handicap Wizard software effectively is understanding percentages, including the percentages of the individual components like LP, and playing those percentages when they give an advantage. In the 3rd race at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race a 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, #1 Holder Close stood out because of its 61.5% (3-5 equivalent strength) win estimate in LP along with having a solid 27.0% SPD win estimate while being priced at fair value or even a discount (relative LP) at 7-2. In the race, Holder Close accelerated around the far turn and then catapulted past the favorite #5 Dialithic at 3-5. Holder Close paid $9.40 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 