The Turf Program had a very nice result in the 4th at Belmont at Aqueduct today, a $85K maiden claiming race at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares and up, having the exacta order correct with its first two selection of #5 Cailin Dana at 3-1 and #2 Mendee at 2-1. In the race, Cailin Dana broke through a seam down the stretch to beat Mendee by under a length. The $2 exacta paid $18.20.
One of the keys to using Pro-Handicap Wizard software effectively is understanding percentages, including the percentages of the individual components like LP, and playing those percentages when they give an advantage. In the 3rd race at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race a 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, #1 Holder Close stood out because of its 61.5% (3-5 equivalent strength) win estimate in LP along with having a solid 27.0% SPD win estimate while being priced at fair value or even a discount (relative LP) at 7-2. In the race, Holder Close accelerated around the far turn and then catapulted past the favorite #5 Dialithic at 3-5. Holder Close paid $9.40 for the win.
The program had some excellent results yesterday at both Parx and Churchill. At Parx in the 1st race, a $12.5K claiming race at 6 1/2f on the dirt for three-year-olds, the program had the winner with its first selection of #4 Problems Around at 5-1. The horse had a a total win probability of 34.48%, translating to theoretical odds of 9-5. Problems Around projected 1st in final speed with a win estimate of 46.3% along with having a COMP value of 58.7%. The horse’s risk was elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 12.80% but so was the risk of the other horses in this race. In the race, Problems Abound went wire to wire in the win, paying $12.00.
In race 7 at Churchill, a $20K Allowance race at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds fillies and mares, the program’s 3rd selection, #1 Abitibi, won at 20-1. The horse projected 2nd in final speed with a win estimate of 25.2% (3-1 equivalent strength) while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.63%. The horse was able to maintain its recent good form and win at a big price with a total win probability of 12.27% or 7-1 theoretical odds. Abitibi paid $27.58 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 