By The Grey program had an excellent result in the 6th race at Belmont, a $65K claiming race at 6f on the turf for three-year-olds, having the winner with its first selection of #5 On the Ledge at 12-1. Though On the Ledge was a first time starter, the horse had theoretical odds of 3-1, projecting first in final speed with a 50.5% win estimate while having the second highest win percentage at 20.6% (4-1 odds equivalent). On the Ledge’s risk was slightly elevated at 9.64%. According to this data, the horse should have been no where near 12-1, showing a gross mispricing. In the race, the favorite #2 Java Buzz led through the opening quarter while On the Ledge stalked from the 3rd position along the rail. On the Ledge accelerated around the far turn before taking the lead decidedly down the stretch. On the Ledge paid $27.20 for the win. These are exactly the type of opportunities the handicapper should be patient for and then profit from.
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