Day: July 13, 2025

The Grey Program had a fine result in the 8th at Monmouth, a $12.5K claiming race at 5 1/2 f for three-year-olds fillies and mares, with its first selection of #7 Karen’s Honor at 7-1. The horse had a total win probability of 32.29%, translating to theoretical odds of 2-1. Karen’s Honor projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 54.6% while having the highest win percentage in the field at 22.2%. The horse also had fairly low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.2%. Karen’s Honor paid $16 for the win.

Continuing its good results from yesterday, the Turf Program had another excellent result today in the 5th at Monmouth, a $40K claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the turf for fillies and mares three-years-old and up, having the tri-fecta order correct with its first three selections of #2 Mischief Maxey at 3-1, #5 West Loop at 4-1 and #6 Definite Diva at 5-2. Mischief Maxey rallied inside the last sixteen on the inside part of the track to get the win in a photo with West Loop. The $0.50 tri-fecta paid $35.60.

Using both the Grey and Turf programs, the Handicap Wizard had winners in four out of eight races today (with enough data), including in the 5th (a $59K maiden race at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds) with Perrota at 4-1, in the 6th, 7th and 9th (a $16K claiming race at 5 1/2 f on the turf for three-year-olds fillies and mares) with #4 Mexican Sugar at 7-1. In both races, it was the horse’s “in the money” win percentage that was dominant, 88.5% in the case of Perrota and 88.9% in the case of Mexican Sugar. Here the user of the Handicap Wizard’s Turf Program has a significant edge in sifting the data to make this calculation whereas the general public does not have knowledge of this important metric. With Mexican Sugar the Turf program calculated theoretical odds of 1-1 versus final odds of 7-1 while Perroto’s theoretical odds were 3-2 versus final odds of 4-1. Perrota paid $10.40 and Mexican Sugar $17.80 for the win. The ROI with first selections today at Monmouth was 116% (($34.6/$16)/$16).

Race 5

Race 9