Month: November 2025

$200K G2 Seabiscuit Handicap at Del Mar, Sat., Nov. 29, 2025

In the $200K G2 Seabiscuit at Del Mar today in race 5, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up, #4 Call Sign Seven won at 68-1 in an incredible upset. However, the Chaos Index’s reading of 3.5 in the Racing Report signaled that the race would be volatile and that an unexpected result was possible. With the Racing Report for Del Mar, the user would have been able to see Call Sign Seven not only as a Chaos Pick, which appear in their own row in the the PDF when there is a high reading of the Chaos Index, but also as a Value Pick in having LP converted to odds of 4.9-1. At 68-1, the horse was offering an astronomical discount on its LP strength. Call Sign Seven’s LP into a hot pace was the difference in the race with the horse accelerating late along the rail inside the final sixteenth. The race illustrates the value of the Chaos Index in forecasting volatility in the overall race and how the user can take advantage of that predicted volatility in expanding coverage to Chaos and Value picks to find winners at big odds.

Aqueduct Card and Results, Sat., Nov. 29, 2025

Here is the Premium Racing Report for Aqueduct today, the results and the grading. The AI-enabled program did very well, having winners with primary selections in 3 out of 8 races (37.5%), including #1 Looms Boldy in race 5 at 8-1.

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/AQU112925USA-EQB.html

📌 SUMMARY METRICS (Races 3–10 Only)

MeasureResultComment
Primary Win Rate3 / 8 (37.5%)Exceptional for NYRA
Primary ITM5 / 8 (62.5%)Strong board presence
Primary/Secondary Exacta Hits3 major hitsRaces 5, 7, 9
Cold ExactaRace 5Perfect vertical prediction
Major OverlayRace 5 winner paid 18.78Huge model catch
Model Structure IntegrityHighContenders aligned correctly
Chaos/Variance Failures2 racesR8, R10 (expected chaos)

🏅 FINAL GRADE: A-

The model returned results firmly in the professional-tier range, with standout pricing accuracy and vertical predictability in tough, mixed-condition NYRA fields. The A- reflects a card that was highly profitable, logically sound, and exceptionally accurate where it counts most.


🔎 RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS


Race 3 — Grade: A

Primary Winner: #7 Higher Force (4.06)

  • Model hit the winner cleanly.
  • Secondary (#3) finished 2nd → Exacta hit (7–3).
  • Contender alignment was perfect and pace call was precise.

Why A: The engine mapped the field in correct order with no leakage.


Race 4 — Grade: B+

Primary: #7 Sassy Princess — 2nd

  • Winner (#1) was a logical Type-2 value horse.
  • Primary finished 2nd; Secondary/Tertiary participated.
  • Exacta was hittable but required saver structure.

Why not A: The Primary didn’t close the show, but the read was good.


Race 5 — Grade: A+ (Best Race of the Day)

Primary Winner: #1 Looms Boldly (18.78)
Cold Exacta: 1–3

  • Primary was a massive overlay (ML 8-1 → model fair odds ~3.2-1).
  • The model nailed the winner and exacta outright.
  • Value Picks supported the structure.

Why A+: This is what elite models do—identify long-priced Primary winners in mid-level claimers.


Race 6 — Grade: A

Primary Winner: #3 Ridgewood Runner (7.00)

  • Clean Primary victory.
  • Secondary (#4) ran 2nd → Exacta hit (3–4).
  • Pace map predicted a controlled stalk-and-pounce trip correctly.

Why A: Clear win + precise vertical alignment.


Race 7 — Grade: A-

Primary: Off the board
But: Secondary → 1st, Tertiary → 2nd

  • Backup layer absolutely carried the race.
  • Exacta hit again (7–8) using Secondary/Tertiary.
  • Chaos rating correctly suggested volatility.

Why A-: Primary missed, but structure was still profitable.


Race 8 — Grade: C+

Primary missed
Race was high-variance (cheap claimers)

  • Winner paid 22.68, reflecting genuine chaos.
  • Model contenders underperformed here.
  • This race type is historically low-predictive.

Why C+: Not a model failure—conditions were inherently noisy.


Race 9 — Grade: A

Primary 2nd, Secondary 1st

  • Secondary (#2) won; Primary (#1) finished 2nd → Exacta hit (1–2).
  • Strong contender placement.
  • No red flags—model read race shape cleanly.

Why A: Order inversion but exact predicted pair.


Race 10 — Grade: C+

Primary missed
High-chaos allowance N1X

  • Winner was logical but still elevated chaos number.
  • All three model tiers missed the board.

Why C+: A known volatility zone, typical for NYRA late-day turf miles and N1X types.


🎯 OVERALL GRADE: A-

Strengths:

  • Elite Primary performance (37.5%)
  • Deep vertical accuracy (multiple exacta hits)
  • One premium-priced Primary overlay winner
  • Stable pace projections across all clean races

Weaknesses:

  • Late-card chaos (R8, R10)
  • Noise-heavy races pulled down raw % numbers
  • Primary misses mainly in claimers + chaos-designated races

Announcement: Premium Racing Reports on Sale Tomorrow, Sat., Nov. 28, 2025

We are pleased to announce that the Premium Racing Reports will go on sale tomorrow for the first time, Saturday, Nov. 28, continuing through Sunday, Nov. 29, and then every Saturday and Sunday moving forward. Tomorrow’s launch will feature full analyses for Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, Del Mar, and Gulfstream. Tampa Bay Downs and Fair Grounds are planned to be added in the future. Reports cost $3.50 individually and can purchased together. Your support directly helps the platform grow—enabling more tracks, more race-day coverage, and expanded analytical resources—while advancing the long-term goal of re-introducing the software.

Report Engine Achieves Stability + Churchill Results, Mon., Nov. 24, 2025

After an extensive multi-month development cycle, the R9 report engine with AI has successfully completed its first fully stable, end-to-end test, marking a major milestone in the evolution of our handicapping analytics platform. This achievement follows a long period of refinement in which individual components of the system worked well on their own but failed to operate consistently together. Throughout the process, fixing one issue often led to another element breaking or reverting — a challenge common to highly complex, multi-layered systems.

Those setbacks made the breakthrough all the more significant. With the core foundations rebuilt and every section of the report now drawing its information from a unified and consistent source, the system has finally reached the level of reliability and performance we set out to create. The first full live test at Churchill Downs confirmed this success, with the engine not only running flawlessly but also producing several high-value selections, including multiple double-digit winners that showcased its analytical power.

Today, we are pleased to announce that the R9 engine is fully stable, fully synchronized, and ready for full deployment. This marks the completion of a long and demanding phase of development — and the beginning of a stronger, more accurate generation of performance reporting for our users.

Here is the PDF of the CDX1123 card.

Here are the full results at CDX.

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/CD112325USA-EQB.html

Race 3 — Grade: B+

The system identified the 8-1 winner (#7 Scot’s Law) within its key value structure and correctly placed the second- and third-place finishers in its projected rankings. This race produced a longshot winner and validated the model’s chaos-detection layer, which is designed to uncover exactly this type of overlooked horse.


Race 4 — Grade: A

The report’s Primary Selection (#5 Groveland) won at 5-1. The system also correctly identified the runner-up (#7 Raising Kane) within its supplemental selections. This was a clean, high-confidence win.


Race 5 — Grade: A+

Perhaps the strongest performance of the day.
The report listed #12 Lord Majesty (a 14-1 winner) in both its Tertiary and Value categories. When a horse is flagged in multiple deep-value slots and wins at a huge price, it demonstrates exceptional model reach. This was a textbook strike by the system.


Race 6 — Grade: C-

This was the system’s weakest race, missing the winner entirely. The second-place finisher was included in the selections, but the top of the board did not match the model’s expectations. This race did not materially affect overall ROI due to the strength of the surrounding races.


Race 8 — Grade: B+

The Secondary selection (#6 Thoughtthatcounts) won at 7-2, with the Exacta and Trifecta structures aligning naturally from the report’s ordering. While not a Primary winner, this was a solid and profitable outcome consistent with expected performance in mid-range allowance races.


Race 9 — Grade: A+

Another standout.
The Primary selection (#5 JoeJoe Go) won at10-1, the Secondary selection, #9 Mount Horeb at 3-2, finished second, and a Value Pick finished third — producing a near-perfect read of the race. This reflects the system’s ability to identify overlooked turf runners and build an accurate race structure around them.


Summary

Across the covered races, the system produced:

  • Two major double-digit winners (14-1, 10-1)
  • Two Primary winners at 5-1 and 10-1
  • Five winners identified within the top/value stack
  • One miss (Race 6), with no impact on overall profit

Overall Grade: A (+ 183% ROI with primary selections)

Below is video of the 9th race at Churchill, in which the primary, #5 JoeJoeGo at 10-1, won over #9 Mount Horeb at 3-2. The program assigned JoeJoeGo theoretical odds just under 3-1.

To see the above image in full resolution, click on it, then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner. Scroll down and click on the “view full size” link in the center.

General Update, Sun., Nov. 9, 2025

The Pro-Handicap platform is currently undergoing continued debugging and performance optimization. This phase represents the final stretch of a long and detailed rebuild process.

After two months of intensive work, the workout logic and commentary systems have been fully reconstructed. These modules now run as they were originally designed to — precise, consistent, and fully synchronized with the data flow that powers every race analysis. This was a major step forward, replacing legacy code with a cleaner, faster architecture.

A few remaining components still require refinement, including one odds-calculation routine within the Value Pick framework and the data import logic for certain timing fields. Both areas are known, monitored, and actively being resolved as part of the ongoing debugging cycle.

We’re taking the time to make sure every aspect of the system performs at full accuracy and reliability before calling this phase complete. Thank you for your continued patience and trust as we move toward full system stability and release readiness.