Day: November 30, 2025

$200K G2 Seabiscuit Handicap at Del Mar, Sat., Nov. 29, 2025

In the $200K G2 Seabiscuit at Del Mar today in race 5, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year-olds and up, #4 Call Sign Seven won at 68-1 in an incredible upset. However, the Chaos Index’s reading of 3.5 in the Racing Report signaled that the race would be volatile and that an unexpected result was possible. With the Racing Report for Del Mar, the user would have been able to see Call Sign Seven not only as a Chaos Pick, which appear in their own row in the the PDF when there is a high reading of the Chaos Index, but also as a Value Pick in having LP converted to odds of 4.9-1. At 68-1, the horse was offering an astronomical discount on its LP strength. Call Sign Seven’s LP into a hot pace was the difference in the race with the horse accelerating late along the rail inside the final sixteenth. The race illustrates the value of the Chaos Index in forecasting volatility in the overall race and how the user can take advantage of that predicted volatility in expanding coverage to Chaos and Value picks to find winners at big odds.

Aqueduct Card and Results, Sat., Nov. 29, 2025

Here is the Premium Racing Report for Aqueduct today, the results and the grading. The AI-enabled program did very well, having winners with primary selections in 3 out of 8 races (37.5%), including #1 Looms Boldy in race 5 at 8-1.

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/AQU112925USA-EQB.html

📌 SUMMARY METRICS (Races 3–10 Only)

MeasureResultComment
Primary Win Rate3 / 8 (37.5%)Exceptional for NYRA
Primary ITM5 / 8 (62.5%)Strong board presence
Primary/Secondary Exacta Hits3 major hitsRaces 5, 7, 9
Cold ExactaRace 5Perfect vertical prediction
Major OverlayRace 5 winner paid 18.78Huge model catch
Model Structure IntegrityHighContenders aligned correctly
Chaos/Variance Failures2 racesR8, R10 (expected chaos)

🏅 FINAL GRADE: A-

The model returned results firmly in the professional-tier range, with standout pricing accuracy and vertical predictability in tough, mixed-condition NYRA fields. The A- reflects a card that was highly profitable, logically sound, and exceptionally accurate where it counts most.


🔎 RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS


Race 3 — Grade: A

Primary Winner: #7 Higher Force (4.06)

  • Model hit the winner cleanly.
  • Secondary (#3) finished 2nd → Exacta hit (7–3).
  • Contender alignment was perfect and pace call was precise.

Why A: The engine mapped the field in correct order with no leakage.


Race 4 — Grade: B+

Primary: #7 Sassy Princess — 2nd

  • Winner (#1) was a logical Type-2 value horse.
  • Primary finished 2nd; Secondary/Tertiary participated.
  • Exacta was hittable but required saver structure.

Why not A: The Primary didn’t close the show, but the read was good.


Race 5 — Grade: A+ (Best Race of the Day)

Primary Winner: #1 Looms Boldly (18.78)
Cold Exacta: 1–3

  • Primary was a massive overlay (ML 8-1 → model fair odds ~3.2-1).
  • The model nailed the winner and exacta outright.
  • Value Picks supported the structure.

Why A+: This is what elite models do—identify long-priced Primary winners in mid-level claimers.


Race 6 — Grade: A

Primary Winner: #3 Ridgewood Runner (7.00)

  • Clean Primary victory.
  • Secondary (#4) ran 2nd → Exacta hit (3–4).
  • Pace map predicted a controlled stalk-and-pounce trip correctly.

Why A: Clear win + precise vertical alignment.


Race 7 — Grade: A-

Primary: Off the board
But: Secondary → 1st, Tertiary → 2nd

  • Backup layer absolutely carried the race.
  • Exacta hit again (7–8) using Secondary/Tertiary.
  • Chaos rating correctly suggested volatility.

Why A-: Primary missed, but structure was still profitable.


Race 8 — Grade: C+

Primary missed
Race was high-variance (cheap claimers)

  • Winner paid 22.68, reflecting genuine chaos.
  • Model contenders underperformed here.
  • This race type is historically low-predictive.

Why C+: Not a model failure—conditions were inherently noisy.


Race 9 — Grade: A

Primary 2nd, Secondary 1st

  • Secondary (#2) won; Primary (#1) finished 2nd → Exacta hit (1–2).
  • Strong contender placement.
  • No red flags—model read race shape cleanly.

Why A: Order inversion but exact predicted pair.


Race 10 — Grade: C+

Primary missed
High-chaos allowance N1X

  • Winner was logical but still elevated chaos number.
  • All three model tiers missed the board.

Why C+: A known volatility zone, typical for NYRA late-day turf miles and N1X types.


🎯 OVERALL GRADE: A-

Strengths:

  • Elite Primary performance (37.5%)
  • Deep vertical accuracy (multiple exacta hits)
  • One premium-priced Primary overlay winner
  • Stable pace projections across all clean races

Weaknesses:

  • Late-card chaos (R8, R10)
  • Noise-heavy races pulled down raw % numbers
  • Primary misses mainly in claimers + chaos-designated races