Month: December 2025

A new feature has been added to the TrackIQ report, called “field risk”. It appears in the shaded race block and is a race-level measure that captures how unstable or unpredictable the entire field is, independent of any single horse. It reflects the distribution and dispersion of probabilities across the field—when many horses carry similar win chances, elevated volatility, or mixed profiles, field risk rises. In practical terms, high field risk signals that outcomes are more sensitive to pace disruptions, trip variance, or minor inefficiencies in the market, while low field risk indicates a more orderly race where the hierarchy is clearer. This metric adds context beyond pace alone, helping the report flag when confidence should be tempered and when pricing discipline matters most.

The Chaos Index, by contrast, is a barometer of disorder. It doesn’t describe the field’s balance—it signals how likely the race is to break away from expectations due to pace shocks, profile mismatches, or nonlinear outcomes. A race can have low field risk but a rising Chaos Index if something about the setup invites disruption, and vice versa.

Here’s how the feature appeared in TrackIQ report in the 8th at AQU, a race in which the program had the exacta order correct in reverse order with the Primary and Secondary selections of #6 Reliable Lade at 5-1 and #4 Mega Mil at 1-1. The $1. ex. paid $19.

The AI-enabled program likewise had the winner in the $200K G3 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes in the 11th at Gulfstream, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, with its first selection of #2 Wolfies’ Dynaghost at 4-5. The son Ghostzapper took it wire-to-wire in the win, setting a new track record for 1 1/8 mi at 1:43:42.

The AI-enabled and track-customized program had the exacta order correct in the $150K G3 Harland’s Holiday at Gulfstream today, run at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds and up, with its primary and secondary selections of #2 Skippylongstocking at 9-5 and #5 Poster at 6-5. After getting shuffled back coming around the turn, the classy son of Exaggerator (57% WP% versus this field) made a move to outside and then put away the odds favorite, Poster, down the stretch to win by a half length. The $2 ex. paid $22.00.

The Premium Racing Reports for Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs are now available on the “Purchase” page. At Gulfstream today are the following graded stakes races:

Race 5 – $125K Janus Stakes at 5f on the turf for three-year-olds and up

Race 6 – $125K Sugar Swirl Stakes at 6f on the dirt of three-year-old fillies and mares

Race 9 – $150K Suwannee River Stakes at 1 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares

Race 10 – $150K G3 Harlan Holiday’s at 1 1/16mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds

The Premium Race Report for Tampa Bay Downs has been completed and is ready for launch this Sat. It will be available for purchase on the Purchase page. The Report has been compiled and optimized from the back-testing of metrics in hundreds of races in 2025.

The Tampa Bay Downs report differentiates races by recognizing that sprint and route contests—and dirt and turf surfaces—behave very differently in how races are decided. Sprint races are evaluated with an emphasis on early race shape and the ability to stay involved through pressure, while route races are approached as longer-form contests where balance, efficiency, and sustained positioning matter more than raw early advantage. Likewise, dirt races are treated as more volatile and intent-driven, whereas turf races are analyzed as more rhythm-dependent and tactically structured. By adapting its interpretation to these distinct environments, the report reflects how Tampa races actually unfold, rather than applying a single generic model across all distances and surfaces.