For those wondering how the Image-IQ Report can be used to spot value in horses other than with the obvious Model Odds values, there is a section below the Primary, Secondary and Tertiary selections called Value Picks, in which the user can see how specific metrics of the horse like SPD, E1, E2, LP, COMP and WP% are valued in terms of odds, which are converted from their win probabilities and historical win percentage. Ideally, the user is looking for horses that do not have just one metric, whose conversion to odds is below the live odds of the horse but multiple metrics below. Such a situation appeared in the 5th at the Fair Grounds yesterday, a $30K Clm at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt with a projected hot pace, with the #2 horse, Great Escape at 9-1. The horse had three metrics with odds conversions not just below its live odds of 9-1 but also below its M/L of 9-2, including “LP 3.9-1, COMP 1.6-1, WP% 4.4-1”. What this means is that the horse’s late speed, COMP as the sum of its E1, E2 and LP probabilities from the simulation and historical win percentage, adjusted for stakes, had values that were below the M/L price. At 9-1, the market was treating Great Escape as a horse with 10% winning chances rather than a horse who has won 18-20% historically against this level of competition. Its COMP value of 1.6-1 indicated better than 2-1 strength for the horse on a speed component level in the aggregate.
In the race, Great Escape led from start to finish, winning by several lengths. The Primary selection in the Track-IQ report, #8 Yellow Brick, finished second. Great Escape paid $21 for the win and the $1 ex. paid $48.30. This result shows how a quick analysis of the value metrics of the horses can be used to spot a significantly undervalued horse. Pairing this type of discounted horse with the Primary selection is a reasonable exacta strategy that can be very profitable when the heavily discounted horse performs according to his projections and quantitative strength. This race is being mentioned because #2 Great Escape was actually taken in the race and is a real-life example.
Equibase Notes on race 5 at FGX
Pro-Handicap Analytics 