An unspoken truth of horse racing is that it pays to be lucky. Such was the case in the 8th race today at the Fair Grounds, a $12,500 OClm at 1 mi. on the turf, with #1 Coffee County pulling off a huge upset at 24-1. Coffee County made a charge from the outside late at the wire to get up before the favorite, #6 Wicked as Haggart at 3-2 and #8 Southscape at 5-1. In the Track-IQ report for the Fair Grounds, #1 Coffee Country was the tertiary selection with theoretical odds of 6-1, making the horse an overlay four times over. Notable in the race notes on Coffee Country is the mentioning of its breeding match for the mile distance: Coffee Country is a son of New Years Day, who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile in 2013 at 1 1/16 mi (and then was retired). Besides getting a clean trip on the far outside down the stretch, Coffee Country benefited from his projected field-best SPDadj (final speed adjusted for the route distance) and his late pace strength with a LP win probability of 22% (4-1 in equivalent odds). The horse was also fresh after a more than two month lay-off. Coffee Country paid $50 for the win. Placing half-sized win bets on these type of horses with the aim of diversifying can be enormously profitable, like in this race. To see the below images in full-resolution, click on it and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner. Scroll down slightly and click on the full-size link in the bottom-left center.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 