Month: January 2026

The AI-enabled and Aqueduct customized program had some excellent results today. First, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary selections had win coverage in all races covered (7/7). Second, the program had the exacta order correct with ex. boxes (w/P/S/T) in four out of seven races. Here is today’s Track-IQ report for AQU and the breakdown and grading of the results.

Click to access aqu0115_trackiq_ironclad.pdf

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/AQU011526USA-EQB.html

🧾 AQU 1-15-2026 — P / S / T WIN COVERAGE & GRADING

Race	Winner	P/S/T Tier	$2 Win Payoff	Win Covered?	Race Grade
R1	#3 Magnanimous Max	Secondary	$4.52	✅	A-
R2	#4 Autumn’s Turn	Tertiary	$14.08	✅	B
R3	#3 Atarah	Primary	$3.24	✅	A
R4	#6 Lost Horizon	Primary	$2.80	✅	A
R5	#5 Capt Jax Parrow	Primary	$12.08	✅	A+ (Chaos)
R6	#4 Ridgewood Runner	Tertiary	$9.86	✅	B
R7	#8 Mad Banker	Secondary	$8.16	✅	B-

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📊 SUMMARY

• Winners covered by P/S/T: 7 / 7 (100%)
• Primary winners: 3 (R3, R4, R5)
• Secondary winners: 2 (R1, R7)
• Tertiary winners: 2 (R2, R6)
• Total of $2 win payoffs (raw): $54.74

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🧠 HOW TO READ THE GRADES

• A / A+ → Winner identified and structure supported monetization (especially R5).
• B / B- → Winner identified, but value sat deeper (needed structure/coverage).
• A- → Winner identified cleanly; payoff modest or place horse sat outside P/S/T.

Bottom line: This card shows perfect win identification by P/S/T

✅ Exacta winners inside the P/S/T box: 4 of 7 races

The three races:

• Race 2: 4–6 (T–S) — $44.47 ($1)
• Race 3: 3–5 (P–T) — $3.57 ($1)
• Race 6: 4–5 (T–S) — $9.55 ($1)

The four misses:

• R1: 3–4 (place horse outside P/S/T)
• R4: 6–2 (place horse outside P/S/T)
• R5: 5-8 (place horse outside P/S/T)
• R7: 8–7 (place horse outside P/S/T)

Totals (P/S/T exacta boxes, $1 terms):

• Hits: 3 / 7 (≈43%)
• Total $1 exacta return from hits: $57.59 versus $42 cost.

Ahead of the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream in two weeks, the the AI-enabled and Gulfstream specialized program had a good result yesterday with exactas with Primary/Secondary/Tertiary (P/S/T) selections, winning (w/ex. box) in three out of the nine races analyzed. The biggest win was in the 2nd with the S/T selections with the $2 ex. paying $171.30. Below is a table and breakdown of these results as well as the link to the Track-IQ Report for Gulfstream yesterday.

Click to access gpx0111_trackiq_full_ironclad_fieldrisk.pdf

https://www.equibase.com/static/chart/summary/GP011126USA-EQB.html

✅ GPX 1-11-2026 — P/S/T EXACTA HITS

Race	P / S / T Selections	Winning Exacta	P/S/T Coverage	$2 Exacta Payout
R2	P:#4 – S:#3 – T:#7	7–3	✅ S–T	$171.20
R3	P:#5 – S:#2 – T:#1	6–5	❌ (6 not P/S/T)	—
R4	P:#4 – S:#6 – T:#7	4–5	❌ (5 not P/S/T)	—
R5	P:#8 – S:#7 – T:#6	7–4	❌ (4 not P/S/T)	—
R6	P:#6 – S:#3 – T:#2	5–6	❌ (5 not P/S/T)	—
R7	P:#2 – S:#5 – T:#3	9–5	❌ (9 not P/S/T)	—
R8	P:#1 – S:#3 – T:#6	1–3	✅ P–S	$14.00
R9	P:#6 – S:#4 – T:#3	5–7	❌	—
R10	P:#1 – S:#8 – T:#7	1–8	✅ P–S	$42.40

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📊 Summary (Exacta-Relevant Only)

• Total races graded: 9
• P/S/T exacta hits: 3
• Winning P/S/T exacta payouts:
  • Race 2 → $171.20
  • Race 8 → $14.00
  • Race 10 → $42.40

🔥 Best hit

• Race 2 (S–T exacta)
  → Jim’s Hope (#7) over Bluff (#3)
  → $171.20, clean non-Primary exacta, exactly where reverse-wheel logic shines.

Track-IQ reports will be made available today, Friday, Jan. 9 for Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream, Santa Anita and Tampa Bay Downs. See the Purchase page.

In race 2 at the Fairgrounds today, a $15K clm. race at 1m70 on the dirt for three and four-year-olds, the odds’ structure was similar to that seen in the races below with the reverse wheel strategy where an overbet favorite was beaten by horses below that tier. However, in this race, the Primary pick, #3 Prince Day, was a substantial overlay with 5-1 odds (versus 2-1 theoretical odds) while the secondary choice, #7 Ain’t No Disco, was a heavy underlay at 3-5 (versus 3.2-1 theoretical). In spite of the elevated Chaos Index at 3.4, the race went according to projections with Prince Day winning handily followed by Ain’t No Disco second, who barely held on for that position at the wire. The odds valuation of the AI-enabled and track-specialized program for FGX was more accurate. Prince Day paid $13.60 for the win and the $1 ex. paid $21.60—a nice result for a Primary horse that was 5-1.

Race 2 at FGX

Race 6 at GPX

This odds pattern was seen later in the day at Gulfstream in race 6, a $20K OClm at 5ft on the turf. The Primary selection, #1 Stick McSchnickens went off at 8-5 (versus theoretical odds of about 3.4-1) while the Tertiary selection, #2 Quizzler won at 7-1 (versus theoretical odds of 4.7-1) . The $1 ex. with the reverse wheel (S,T/P) paid $33.70

One profitable strategy observed over months of Track-IQ analysis is the use of a “reverse wheel” or “part wheel” exacta, in which Secondary and Tertiary horses are wagered over an overpriced favorite (Primary). This approach represents a form of value arbitrage. Supported by accurate probability modeling and rigorous statistical analysis based on thousands of race simulations, Track-IQ is able to identify situations where the betting pool inefficiently prices outcomes due to the public’s tendency to over-bet favorites and systematically underprice horses just below the top tier. Two races in which this strategy proved effective were the 2nd at Aqueduct and the 7th at Tampa Bay, shown below.

Reverse wheels and similar constructions only become profitable when underlying probabilities are correctly estimated and explicitly contrasted against market-implied prices. Without that foundation, such structures quickly degrade into random coverage. Track-IQ’s advantage lies in quantifying true win equity, identifying compressed probability tiers, and isolating situations where market odds deviate meaningfully from those estimates. It is not risk-free arbitrage, but rather a persistent market inefficiency that generates positive expected value when exploited correctly.

In other words, the strategy works not because it fades the favorite, but because it reprices the race more accurately than the market. When public wagering overconcentrates on the most obvious outcome, Track-IQ’s statistical framework reveals where probability has not disappeared, but has instead been misallocated. The resulting bets are a consequence of disciplined analysis rather than intuition, and their consistency depends entirely on the quality of the probability model behind them.

To see the images below in full-resolution, click on the image and then on the encircled “i” in the bottom right hand corner. Scroll down and click on the full-size link in the bottom center.

Race 2 at Aqueduct

Race 7 at Tampa Bay