Ahead of the Risen Star Stakes at the Fairgrounds this weekend, the Track-IQ framework had an excellent result in the 3rd race today, having the exacta order correct with its Primary and Secondary selections of #3 Donnegal Moonshine at 7-2 and #2 High Stakes Hustler at 4-1. That was near their theoretical odds of 3-1 and 4-1. This was also a race in which there was a heavy favorite in #4 Sir Liam at 3-2. Donnegal Moonshine paid $9.40 for the win and the $1 ex. paid $21.70.
In relation to the additional notes on Track-IQ that were just released, a good example of how Field Risk can be used to one’s advantage was seen in the 8th race at the Fairgrounds, a $55K Alw at 1 1/16 on the turf. The Field Risk of only 5.38% indicated high confidence in the Primary/Secondary/Tertiary picks as whole, including #8 Faber at 7-1 versus 4.3-1 theoretical odds. According to the metrics, #8 Faber was a gift at 7-1 in having a 76% SPD , 23% E2, and 28% LP win probabilities (projected in the simulation), in addition to low Coefficient of Variance of 4.0%. So in this race with the low Field Risk, expanded win coverage to Faber as the Secondary choice at 7-1 was absolutely warranted and turned out to be profitable. Here taking low risk with a relatively high win probability of about 19% (Faber’s 4.3-1 odds) was met with high reward. The horse paid $16.60 for the win.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 