By Florida Derby
The Track-IQ framework did well today in both the Florida and Arkansas Derbies. In the Florida Derby, it identified the winner with its Secondary selection in #4 Commandment at 9-5, who was a solid choice behind the favorite, #6 Nearly at 7-5. The bettors made Nearly the clear favorite by bidding it down to 3-5 at one point before the race before the horse settled at 7-5. As mentioned on Pro-Handicap Analytics Youtube channel (under Handicapwizard), #4 Commandment had SPD win probability of 33% according to a simulation of 1000 races, signaling that the horse had 2-1 strength in current form. Those were the odds it went off at. The framework also had the place horse in #8 the Puma at 7-1 as its quaternary selection. As mentioned yesterday on the Pro-Handicap Analytics Youtube Channel in the preview video of the race, the Puma’s final speed figure in the Tampa Derby looked mighty suspect, given he ran the Derby in the same time of 1.43 and 1 that Commandment and #2 Chief Wallabee also ran the Fountain of Youth in when both races were at the same distance of 1 1/16 mi. Brisnet needs to explain that one because the 93 final speed for the Puma was clearly understated as the horse contradicted with his strong performance today. In the race, Nearly held a moderate pace going into the second turn but then faded while the Puma catapulted around the turn and took the lead midway down the stretch. Commandment flew late in the middle of the track and caught the the Puma at the wire in a photo finish. The photo was very close where you could argue that the Puma was still ahead at the wire on the inside part of the track; but the stewards gave it to Commandment. The $1 ex. paid $12.10.
Arkansas Derby
In the Arkansas Derby, Renegade was the Primary Selection and odds favorite at 4-5. Coming out of the far turn, #6 Renegade took command of the race and went on to win by several lengths over the tertiary selection, #2 Silent Tactic at 7-2, who finished second. The Track-IQ framework had the superfecta horses, with #4 Bricklan at 44-1 coming in 4th. The $0.10 superfecta paid $47.19. This result once again, shows the accuracy of the Track-IQ system.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 