The Handicap Wizard had another win with its top selection in the 10th race, the $2 mil. Breeders’ Cup Distaff, run at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt for fillies and mares. The program had #11 Blue Prize at 9-1 as its top pick with a total winning probability of 23.17%. The horse had the highest SPD and LP winning estimates of 51.1% and 36.6%. In the race, Blue Price took control down the stretch, holding off the favorite, #4 Midnight Bisou at 1-1, who finished second. Blue Prize paid $19.80 for the win.
The Handicap Wizard correctly predicted the winner of the $2 mil. Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in #3 Spun to Run at 9-1. The program assigned him a total winning probability of 21.26%, though his COMP estimate was higher at 31.1%. In the race, Spun to Run went wire to wire, while the favorite, Omaha Beach at 1-1, finished second. Spun to Run paid $20.20 for the win.
Another race today that handicappers will have their sights on is race 11, the $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf for three-year olds at 1 ½ miles. The field features Bricks and Mortar, winner of his last six at mostly the G1 level, who has been idle since the Arlington Million in mid August. There is also the Belmont Turf Classic winner, Arklow, and Man of War winner, Channel Maker, among others. A wildcard in this race is Old Persian, who won the Northern Dancer at Woodbine in September. The Handicap Wizard Turf Program has Bricks and Mortar as its top selection with a 19% winning probability versus 9-5 on the M/L. However, there is scant data for Old Persian, Anthony Van Dyck and Mount Everest because they are European or Dubai horses. Both Old Persian and Anthony Van Dyck have had G1 wins, with Old Persian coming into the race in better form. The big question is whether Arklow can repeat his career best 114 final speed figure at the Belmont Turf Classic in early October. This seems unlikely in view of Arlow’s erratic win record, underscored by a Coefficient of Variance for his final speed figures of 9%. On a speed basis, Arklow with a 19.6% SPD estimate has value versus his 12-1 price on the M/L. Statistically, Acclimate is interesting as a long-shot at 20-1 on the M/L in view of his strong E1 and E2 estimates of 80.3% and 57.5% and total win probability of 15.21%. He has won and placed in his last two G2 races at Del Mar and Santa Anita. In total, Bricks and Mortar appears vulnerable in terms of speed to the field with a SPD estimate of only 2.2%, but 39.9% in the LP category. Channel Cat at 15-1, Channel Maker at 10-1 and Arklow at 12-1 all have higher SPD estimates compared to Bricks and Mortar, with Channel Maker having the highest at 36.6%. If Acclimate’s COMP estimate is not accurate because of high variances, then Bandua may be the sleeper in this race at 20-1 with the second highest COMP estimate of 14% compared to Bricks and Mortar 9%. The top selections according to the program are Bricks and Mortar, Channel Maker and Acclimate. Old Persian’s winning percentage and total winning probabilities are understated because of a lack of data for his foreign races. Considering those races, he’s closer to Channel Maker and Acclimate in terms of strength, making him a place or show threat.
An even better result for the program was in the 6th race at Santa Anita, the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at 1 mi. Despite odds of 55-1 and 67-1, #8 Billy Batts and #9 Gear Jockey were the two strongest horses according to the COMP estimate, with winning probabilities by that measure of 26.0% and 24.0% respectively. While Billy Batts was the top selection overall with a 15.2% total winning probability in this wide-open juvenile turf race, it turned out that Billy Batts and Gear Jockey had incredible value according to the COMP measure, which had their fair value around 3-1 each. In the race, Billy Batts led down the stretch, only to be edged at the wire by the winner, #2 Structor at 5-1. Gear Jockey surged late to take 3rd. The market was discounting their relative low winning percentages, when speed prevailed in this race.
There was a good result in race 5 at Santa Anita today, the $1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint. The Handicap Wizard Turf Program favored #9 Four Wheeled Drive at 3-2 with a 36.1% total winning probability, while it had #1 Chimney Rock at 12-1 with a 16.18% winning probability as a close third selection. In the race, Four Wheeled Drive went wire to wire, holding off a late challenge by Chimney Rock to secure the win. The win paid $5.00, while the place with Chimney Rock paid $8.20. The $2 exacta paid $46.20.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 