Author: handicapwizard

The program had a couple of successful results today at Belmont Park worth mentioning. In the 3rd, a $40K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the turf for three-year olds, the top selection, #4 Appicator, went wire-to-wire in a win, upseting the live odds’ favorite, #7 Harv Won’t Tap at 2-1. The horse paid $9.10.

And in the 4th, an $80K optional claiming race at 6f on the turf for three-year olds, there was an opportunity not often seen in the odds, with several horses offering significant value due to the favorite, #8 Mutakativ, being ovebet at 1-1. One was #6 Discretionary Marquee with a winning probability of 13.6% versus 16-1 odds and another was #7 Banana Thief with a 16.8% winning probability versus 12-1 odds. That resulted in large expected ROI values for the horses of +131% and +118%. In the race, Discretionary Marque showed speed early on and held on doggedly to the end, while Banana Thief finished second. Discretionary Marque paid $34.80 for the win.

One of the most interesting races today odds-wise was in the 7th at Gulfstream, a $6,250 claiming race at 1m on the dirt for three-year olds without a win since early May. According to the program, #7 Dream Martini had the highest winning percentage at 33% versus odds of 6-1, representing value. There was also value in #2 Avast Matey at 46-1 compared to the model’s winning probability of 7.42%. With those high of odds, it had an expected return of +249%, the highest in the field, with Dream Martini next at +131%. The market saw Chiseled as the best horse with odds of 6-5. Even though the race was a low-stakes claiming race, the implied winning probability of Chiseled at 45% (versus the model probability 19.60%) signaled that the horse was a strong contender to win. Therefore, if the horseplayer was still looking to play value, Dream Martini or Avast Matey would have to be taken for place or show. Judging by Avast Matey’s SPD estimate, the horse did not appear to have much speed; however, his E1 and E2 estimates of 36% and 38% told a different story, that the horse was relatively fast through early and middle distances. The horse also had decent final speed figures five and six races back. Where Avast Matey was lacking was in LP, indicating the horse was not finishing his races. If the horse could stretch out just a little farther, he was worth taking a flier on either to place or show. As it turns out, Chiseled won the race, while Avast Matey came in 2nd and Dream Martini third. Avast Matey led for much of the race, until he was overtaken down the stretch by Chiseled. Avast Matey paid $26.40 for the place.

 

 

 

The program got off to a good start today in the 1st at Woodbine, a $40K optional claiming race for fillies and mares three-years old an up at 1 1/16 mi. on dirt. The model’s top selection was #4 Macho Bourbon with a 34.24% winning probability, thanks to a relatively strong SPD (46.6%) and E1 and E2 (51.9% and 55.1%) component estimates.  After breaking well out of the gate, Macho Bourbon went wire-to-wire in uncontested fashion, beating the live odds favorite #1 Biodetti’s Choice at 3-2. Apart from having the highest winning probability, the horse had the 2nd highest expected return with an expected ROI of 71%, which is an ideal combination to have.  The horse paid $10.00 for the win.

 

 

The Handicap Wizard had another winner at Woodbine with its top selection, #2 Perfect Forester, in the 4th, a $20K claiming race at 6.5f on the turf for three-years and up.  Like in the previous race, Perfect Forester benefited from relatively strong E1 and E2 component estimates (41.7% and 54.1%). The win paid $7.10, though this time the horse had a negative expected return. 

 

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The Handicap Wizard had an excellent night at Churchill Downs, winning with top selections in the Matt Winn Stakes in the 5th with #6 Mr. Money, in the Fleur de Lis Handicap in the 7th with #3 Elate, in the Stephen Foster Stakes in the 8th with #4 Seeking the Soul, and in Regret Stakes in the 9th for fillies with #5 Hard Legacy. Excluding the three maiden races, it had a 57% hit rate for a 130% ROI ($32 profit vs. $14 in total wagers). See the previous post for the selections.

 

 

Here are free selections for Churchill hill tonight. The card features several stakes races, including the G3 Matt Winn Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. for three-year olds in the 5th and the G2 Stephen Foster Stakes at 1 1/8 mi. for three-year olds and up in the 8th.

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