We’d like to pass on some feedback that we received today about version 4.0. Here is what a customer wrote: “I’ve spent some time getting familiar with 4.0 and it’s my impression that the exponential smoothing approach is a significant advance. I have been handicapping horses on a serious basis since 1963. Over the years, I have used many methodologies and approaches, some with greater success, many with less. I firmly believe that speed is the most predictive factor in the outcome of a race. That’s the reason I like Handicap Wizard and how it analyzes a race.”
Author: handicapwizard
The Handicap Wizard hit the tri-fecta in race 3 today at Gulfstream, a $16K optional claiming race at 5f on the turf for three-year old fillies and mares. The program picked the winner, #2 Dahonlega at 9-2, over the heavy favorite, #5 Sugar Bolt at 7-5. Through the opening quarter-mile Sugar Bolt dueled with #7 All About Stella for the lead, which continued to the top of the stretch. Sugar Bolt held on to a small lead heading to the wire, when Dahonlega came from behind in the middle of the track to surge to victory. The win paid $11.60, while the $0.50 tri-fecta paid $43.45. That’s 87-1 equivalent odds for the tri-fecta that the Handicap Wizard hit cold.
The assessment of the outcome of the Preakness by the Handicap Wizard is that it was a difficult race to handicap because of the parity in the field, in which no horse deserved less than 5-1 odds, and because War of War had sub-par performances in the Kentucky Derby and Louisiana Derby that made him virtually impossible to value accurately quantitatively. Since his speed figures hinted at no advantage over the other horses given his 0% final speed estimate in simulation and relatively weak component estimates, the only metric one could gauge him by was Winning Percentage, adjusted for stakes, which at 7.4% indicated a fair value price around 12-1. At 6-1 War of Will was a 1/2 overlay, when you would rather have him be a 2/1 underlay. His performance in the Kentucky Derby, until he was interfered with, gave a glimpse of his strength perhaps, when he was running to the inside of Maximum Security coming out of the far turn, but that brief flash is not something that could be captured in a probabilistic model other than in one E2 data point. On the day at Pimlico, the Handicap Wizard had winners with its top selection in five out of twelve non-maiden races for a 42% hit rate, including with Catholic Boy in the G2 Dixie Stakes in the 12th, who had the highest probability at 20% along with Real Story, and in the G3 Galorett in the 10th with Mitchell Road.
Pro-Handicap Wizard 4.0 is now available for sale on the Purchase page. This latest version contains a combination of the mathematical approaches that have been developed since the program’s inception, including dual functionality between exponential smoothing and the standard approach in simulation, the TRIO estimate, which is a final speed estimate resulting from the sum of a horses’ simulated speed components (E1, E2 and LP), and Coefficient of Variation, which measures a horses risk in terms of the variance of its final speed figures relative to the mean. The exponential or EXP mode uses exponential smoothing in calculating the mean speed figures and standard deviations of the horses. This approach is well suited to capturing the form cycles of the horses by putting greater weighting on the most recent speed figures in establishing means and standard deviations in simulation. For recent results, see the HW 4.0 Studies page. Enjoy!
This Saturday features the second leg of the Triple Crown—the Preakness Stakes—at Pimlico, run at 1 3/16 mi. for three-year-olds on the dirt with a purse of $1.5 million. After the disqualification of the winner, Maximum Security, in the Kentucky Derby, his connections have opted to sideline him for this race. The horse that was elevated to the winner in the Derby, Country House, also will not be running in the Preakness due to illness. That leaves the field wide open, and the results show that is the case, with no horse having a winning probability higher than 17%. This means no horse is being valued less than 5-1. The Handicap Wizard is deferring to Signalman’s class and his highest winning percentage by assigning him the highest winning probability at 16.64%. Signalman placed third in the Blue Grass Stakes and first in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club back in November. While not having the highest final speed estimate, he has the highest E1 and E2 component estimates along with Market King, whose last race was a blow-out. Signalman set a new pace top (111) as a three-year old in the Blue Grass. Second is Anothertwistoffate with a 14.41% winning probability, who had place finishes in the Lexington and the Sunland Derby in his last two races. He closed especially well in the Sunland Derby, which is reflected in his 9.7% LP estimate. Third is Owendale at 9.67%, who put in a peak performance with a top 99 Brisnet final speed figure in the Lexington Stakes, when he left Anothertwistoffate behind. If this race goes according to peak last performance, Owendale would be the best choice, but he is on the riskier side after flopping two races ago. Taking out Market King, Improbable becomes the 4th choice, who is the second most winning horse after Signalman. He is the least risky horse in the field, but his peak performance of 100 Brisnet was four races ago. Alwaysmining should be in the conversation for his third highest final speed estimate 19%, but his component figures are relatively weak and he has below average class with a WP% of only 5%. He won the Federico Tesio at 1 1/8 mi. at Laurel his last time out in April with a final time of 1:50:12. Bodexpress should not be overlooked for his Fla. Derby effort, when he came in 2nd to Maximum Security. He gets a mulligan for his Kentucky Derby performance for having had to check from Maximum Security drifting out of his lane coming out of the far turn, when Bodexpress was in the leading pack of horses. Bodexpress has good pedigree as the son of Bodemeister, who finished 2nd in the Preakness and Kentucky Derby in 2012.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 