Author: handicapwizard

In what was a difficult race to handicap, where no horse was assigned a probability higher than 20%, race 4 at Churchill—a $87K allowance race over 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three-year olds and up—saw the Handicap Wizard hit the exacta straight with its selections of #2 Botswana and #8 Apreciado.  Botswana was tied with Apreciado with the highest final speed estimate at 31%, but had the superior winning percentage of 20.5%. The LP advantage of Bluegrass Parkway was not enough, with Botswana holding off dual threats down the stretch to get the win. Botswana paid $10.40 and the $2 exacta paid  $86.80. 

In the following race, race 5 at Churchill, the Handicap Wizard hit the winner again with its top selection of #3 Chief-Know-It all at 2-1. He was at priced at a premium, having a winning probability of 25% (3-1 fair value) according to the program. Chief-Know-It-All paid $6.40.

Races 6 and 7 at Churchill also saw the Handicap Wizard’s top selection win. #5 D-Squared won in the 6th and #5 Conquest Windycity in the 7th.

 

 

 

Race 6 at Churchill, an $89K optional claiming race at 5.5f for three-year olds on the turf, saw a good result today for the Handicap Wizard with its top selection of #4 Fast Boat, who went off at a discount at 8-1 versus a winning probability of 21%. That put his fair value odds closer to 4-1. In addition to having the high speed estimate in the field at 32% (despite a performance dip in his last race), Fast Boat‘s E1 and E2 estimates rated second best behind those of Johnny Obvious. In the race, Fast Boast stalked until the quarter pole, when he shot to the front and never looked back. The horse paid $19.20.

 

After a string of poor betting races initially at Gulfstream on Thursday, there was finally a good opportunity in the 5th, a $12.5K claiming race for fillies and mares three-years old at 7.5f on the turf. The Handicap Wizard rated #3 Secret of Life highest with a total winning probability of 21.25% (4-1 fair value) versus odds of 7-1. The horse had the highest SPD estimate in the field at 39.4% and the second highest winning percentage, adjusted for stakes, at 16.1%. Following fast opening fractions by long-shot, #1 Little Neck at 88-1, Secret of Life caught up with the leaders by the quarter pole, where he broke through a seam on the inside and then bolted down the stretch to get an easy win by four lengths. Secret of Life paid $16.40.

 

 

 

 

After the debacle of a betting race in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, race 3 at Parx on Monday provided some needed compensation with #5 No Picnic winning the $25K optional claimer at 6f. No Picnic was ranked first by the Handicap Wizard with a total winning probability of 22% versus odds of 8-1, reflecting value. Four other horses had odds less than No Picnic, including #2 Jemrose and #3 Assail, at 2-1. With a dominating LP estimate of 76.5%, No Picnic came up along the rail to overtake #1 Celesse at the wire. The win paid $18.00.