While it is recommended to apply the Handicap Wizard to races that have high data integrity, it can still be effective with less than optimal data sets, like when a horse only has one or two speed figures. That was the case with race 1 at Gulfstream Park Today, a $12.5K claiming race for four-year olds at 1 mi. on dirt, concerning Tale of Fire, which the model had as its top selection with a 25% winning probability. This exactly matched the implied winning probability of the horse’s market price of 3-1. However, the horse showed high risk according to its 24% Coefficient of Variation. Upon a closer look at Tale of Fire‘s starts, the horse had an uneven history, posting a 64 final speed figure in his first maiden race at Fort Erie in July 2017, before the horse changed trainer and then ran in Dubai in 2018. In its most recent start, the horse placed in a $16K claiming race at Delmar in mid October, posting a 89 speed figure. This was highest among all the horses in the field. Despite Tale of Fire having a large variance, which was based on only two data points, the Handicap Wizard judged the horse second classiest and second speediest, which gave it a slight edge over the live odds favorite Takedown at 8-5. This was how the race went, with Tale of Fire leading for much of the race before dueling with 5-2 Discreet Heat, who also had strong figures, down the stretch. Takedown proved the classier horse by digging in at the rail into the wire, winning by a head. The win paid $8.00.
The race shows why it is important to still analyze the underlying data to understand why the program is saying what it is. Because of the time between Tale of Fire‘s first and last starts, it was unlikely to be the risky horse that the program was indicating and that its last start was representative of its current strength. The horse was fully valued at 3-1.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 