Author: handicapwizard

The Handicap Wizard is not as much a horse selection program as it is a probabilistic model and a system of thought about horse racing. There is no one right answer all the time, because the variables are always changing. What works in one race may not in another. But there are universal truths that remain constant. One is that speed in its various forms wins races and the other is that classier horses win more than non-winning horses. Sometimes the classier horses do not have final speed figures that measure up against other horses, because they only went fast enough to win their races and not faster, even though they are capable of a faster speed. When these horses win, they generally do so at higher than average odds. This was the case again today in race 9 at Gulfstream, a $50K Allowance race run on the turf at 1 mi for four-years and upwards. In terms of the field of nine horses, the race did not have a clear favorite. The lowest odds were 3-1 with County Court. County Court had the 2nd highest final speed estimate by the model at 27%, but its E1 and LP figures rated low against other horses. In Too Much Data, on the other hand, you have a horse with the highest winning percentage adjusted for stakes at almost 20%, equating to fair value odds of 4-1. The horse also showed strength in the E1+LP metric, though its final speed estimate was low. What was also favorable about the horse is its risk or Coefficient of Variance of 2%. So besides being the classiest horse, Too Much Data had the lowest risk in winning the most. It didn’t hurt either that Irad Ortiz, Jr. was the rider! These factors made for a good setup and the horse was getting at least fair value odds at 7-2. It took the whole race to find out, but Too Much Data delivered in the end, thanks to a burst of speed halfway down the stretch, to edge out long-shot, Valycove, at 17-1. Too Much Data paid $9.00 for the win.

 

 

 

The 5th race at Santa Anita yesterday—a $57K allowance race at 6.5f on the turf for three-year olds and upward—is illustrative of the value to be gained from a model like the Handicap Wizard, rather than relying upon the market’s evaluation of a horse’s strength. According to the implied probabilities in the live odds, North Country Guy at 7-5 or 34% implied winning chance was the favorite in a race that was otherwise up for grabs. The next highest odds were 5-1 with Mesut. However, North Country Guy’s odds were not statistically supported. The program assigned the horse only a 4% winning probability as a result of a zero final speed estimate and a winning estimate by money results of 5.6%. Hence, this race was one in which to bet against the favorite. There were three other main contenders, Jungle Warfare, who was the model favorite, Paddock Pick and Count Alexander. All three had final speed estimates that rated higher than North Country Guy’s. Count Alexander had the highest E1 and LP figures combined at 23.3% estimate and the strongest winning percentage by results to boot at 20%. By either measure, Count Alexander was undervalued at 6-1, when he should have been closer to  4-1. The horse also had relatively low risk with a Coefficient of Variation of 5%. In the end, Count Alexander overtook Paddock Pick in a 3 wide bid down the stretch, while holding off a late charging Jungle Warfare and jockey, Kent Desormeaux, to win by a length. The running order went by strongest according to the E1+LP metric. The Handicap Wizard had the three money finishers in its top four selections, with a $0.50 tri-fecta paying $200.75.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the sole stakes race at San Anita today, the Handicap Wizard correctly predicted the winner of the $75K Eddie Logan at 1 mi. on the turf for two-year olds. Despite not having the best final speed estimate, Bob and Jackie rated highest with a 29% total winning probability due to stellar E1 and LP projections. Both the horses’s E1 and E1+LP estimates were crushing at 100% and 79.7%, leaving no doubt who the fastest horse in the field was. Its winning percentage of 13.5% was fair, given it was only the horse’s third race and that it had first and second place finishes, including a win at $53K level stakes. Tied for the second lowest post-time odds with Sparkville at 5-2 after 3-2 Rijeka, Bob and Jackie won this two-year old contest handedly, paying $7.80. Bob and Jackie was a slight underlay and fair choice at the 5-2 odds.

 

 

 

 

Races 2 and 3 at Aqueduct today offered a handicapping case study of when to take the favorite according to the model and when not to. In race 2, a $25K maiden claimer at 1 1/8 mi. on the dirt, Run for Boston was the leader in the field with a winning estimate of 49% versus post-time odds of 7-5. While the horse projected high total speed and had a dominant winning percentage, his speed figures looked vulnerable underneath at the E1 and LP level combined, where he was second at only 22%. On this basis, there was reason to be cautious about him. However, one horse who had comparatively good value according to E1+LP—a custom calculation only to be found in the Handicap Wizard—was Local Edition at 5-1, whose 26.8% by that metric was top in the field. His front running style also was advantageous on the sloppy track at Aqueduct, where he factored to be on the lead. This was exactly how the race went, with Local Edition finding his stride around the far turn after stalking two back to the half mile pole and by the final stretch he never looked back, paying $12.20 for the win.

In the third race, a $68K maiden special weight race for three-year olds and upward at 1 mi., Hero’s Welcome was a solid 2-1 favorite or 36% winning percentage according to the model, which gave him some value against the 5-2 live odds price. Unlike Run for Boston above, there were no cracks in Hero’s Welcome underneath speed figures, projecting a 46.4% estimate by the E1+LP metric, which put his fair value closer to 1-1  than 5-2. With most of Hero’s Welcome’s speed coming late, the horse kept it close through the opening half mile, only trailing by 4 lengths, before he catapulted around the final turn in a five-wide bid to win by 3 1/2 lengths. In this case, the horse’s speed relative to his odds was more trustworthy and it paid off $7.70.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Racing fans had reason to be of good cheer today the day after Christmas with the opener of the San Anita track, featuring two premier races in the 8th and 9th with the San Antonio and Malibu Stakes at 1 1/16 mi. and 7f, respectively. The Malibu showcased several top horses, including Baffert trained McKinzie, who won the G1 Pennsylania Derby two back in September, Axelrod, Solomini and Ax Man. The Handicap Wizard gave McKinzie a sizable advantage with a total winning estimate of 36%, thanks to both a superior speed and class rating. This was close to the price the horse went off at 6-5. As the favorite, McKinzie bounced back from his disappointing showing in the Breeders Cup Classic in November to win by seven lengths, paying $4.40. Identity Politics ran a giant race to capture second at 13-1, but even at that those long odds the horse was expensive according to the model.

The San Antonio turned out to be a more competitive affair, with the Handicap Wizard calling it a close contest between Battle of Midway, Dabster and Gift Box. At 3-2 post-time odds versus a winning estimate of 35% by the model, Battle of Midway ran a perfect race and his heart out only to come up a neck short to Gift Box, who surprised at 6-1. That was close to how the model rated him at 13% win probability. Dabster came in third, while all three finished within one and a half lengths of one another.