Author: handicapwizard

As a further illustration of the accuracy of the program, the Handicap Wizard rated Blended Citizen (7-2) essentially equal to the odds favorite, Core Beliefs (2-1), in the 1 1/8 mi. Peter Pan (G3) last Saturday at Belmont, assigning each a combined winning estimate of 30%. Next came Just Whistle and High North both with 13%. This was the order of the superfecta. In comparison, the live odds had the order Core Beliefs/High North (2-1), followed by Just Whistle (5-2) and Blended Citizen (7-2) fourth. Having the highest speed estimate, Blended Citizen overtook Core Beliefs with a burst of speed deep down the stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths.

Regarding the BRIS single data file for Churchill Down’s Saturday card, featuring the Kentucky Derby, be aware that there is only one speed figure for Mendelssohn in the 12th race and that is not for his spectacular UAE Derby win. Unfortunately, there are no Brisnet speed figures for horses in foreign races. Therefore, Mendelssohn’s speed estimate in the model only reflects the single speed figure of 91 from Nov. 3rd, 2017. In this instance, a proxy speed figure for Mendelssohn for his UAE win can be used by looking at his Beyer figure for that race, which was 106. This was one less than Justify’s 107 that he earned in the SantaAnita Derby. By extrapolation, 113 works as a good proxy Brisnet figure for Mendelssohn, in that it’s one less than Justify’s 114 in the Santa Anita Derby. After entering 113 and 91 in the first and second positions for Mendelssohn on the Speed sheet and recalculating the sheet, go to the Combined sheet and hit on “Calculate”. This will give accurate results for the Kentucky Derby. As seen below, the results show that Justify has a slight edge over Mendelssohn at around 4-1 odds. This compares to what is being seen in the futures betting on the two favorites as of Tuesday, May 1.

The Handicap Wizard predicted a number of winners at Gulfstream yesterday, April 21, including the $75K Game Face Stakes in the 11th. It had 9/2 Starcloud over the heavy live-odds favorite, Alter Moon, at 3-5. Starcloud paid $11.20 to win.

In a completely open contest in the 9th, a $25K claiming race over 1 mi. on turf, the program picked the exacta, with 6-1 Scatnap coming in first and 5-1 August Lily second.  Scatnap paid $14 to win. The result is telling for how well the Handicap Wizard performs with turf races.

In another turf race in the 6th, a $47K claiming race over 1 1/8, the program had 1-1 Driven by Thunder a clear first, who was also the favorite in the live odds. Note that Driven by Thunder ranked highest in both metrics.

And in the final race, a $19K Maiden race for three-year olds over 1 1/6 mi. on turf, the Handicap Wizard correctly picked 9-5 Snoring Barth to win over live odds favorite, Repetitious at 1-1, who came in second. It is not advised to apply the program to maiden races because of the lack of data, but one can see it still can be effective.