Author: handicapwizard

It was 24-1 Promises Unfilled who upset 3/5 Good Magic in the $400K Fountain of Youth at GulfStream. The result was on the radar of the Handicap Wizard, who had all the superfecta winning horses in its top 5, including the long-shot winner. Jumping up in stakes from $50K in his last to $400K in this race, top ROI horse, Machismo, turned in a good effort with a burst of speed at the quarter pole, getting 4th, just behind the favorite, Good Magic, who was third.

Going forward, this blog will focus mostly on the Derby Prep races, leading up to the Kentucky Derby itself. 

Here are the model results for race 14 at Gulfstream today (all posted approx 15 mins. before the race), the $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes for 3 year-olds, run at 1 1/16 mi. on dirt. Good Magic ranks highest in both metrics with a 32% winning probability at 7/5 on the M/L, followed by Strike Power at 22.3%, Storm Runner at 15% and Machismo at 10.00%. At 15-1 on the M/L, Storm Runner is offering value. Machismo is another.

The horse with the highest ROI number, Team of Teams, won the $100K Sand Spring Stakes (race 5) today at Gulfstream. In the 2nd of four graded stakes races, over 1 mi. on turf, Team of Teams at 11-1 upset the heavy favorite, Celestine, at 2-5.  With an expected 84% ROI, the horse paid $24.20 for the win. Quite egregious manipulation by the track that it took a horse, according to this model, with a 40% winning probability and depressed the odds to make it have a -52% expected ROI, the worst figure of all the horses in the field. No, the track does not like to give out free money.

In the first of four graded stakes races today, March 3, at Gulfstream , the Handicap Wizard correctly predicted Holy Helena to win the $150K G3 race over 1 3/16 mi. on turf.  Horse paid $9.40 with an even expected ROI.

On March 2, the Handicap Wizard correctly predicted Ninety-One Assault to win race 8 at the Fairgrounds. Not only did it pick the winner in this 12 horse $40K claiming race over 1M on turf for four-year-olds, it nearly picked the place horse, too, in Dapper Jack at 24-1, who missed 2nd only by a nose in a photo. The odds on Ninety-One Assault were beaten down to 7-5 by the post, so that it had a -34% expected ROI, whereas Dapper Jack had a 141% expected ROI. Even finishing show, Dapper Jack outpaid the winner $8.80 to $4.80.