The program had a good result yesterday in the $300K G2 Chicago Stakes at Churchill, run at 7ft on the dirt for fillies and mares four-year-old and up, having the exacta order with its 3rd and 1st selections in #5 Vahva at 2-1 and #10 Claret Beret at 10-1. Vahva was the class in the race, having the highest in the money win percentage at 26.8%, while Claret Beret projected first in final speed with a win estimate of 65.9%. In the race, Vahva took the lead down the stretch while Claret Beret ran second best.
The Turf Program had a very nice result in the 4th at Belmont at Aqueduct today, a $85K maiden claiming race at 1 3/8 mi. on the turf for three-year-old fillies and mares and up, having the exacta order correct with its first two selection of #5 Cailin Dana at 3-1 and #2 Mendee at 2-1. In the race, Cailin Dana broke through a seam down the stretch to beat Mendee by under a length. The $2 exacta paid $18.20.
One of the keys to using Pro-Handicap Wizard software effectively is understanding percentages, including the percentages of the individual components like LP, and playing those percentages when they give an advantage. In the 3rd race at Gulfstream today, a $12.5K claiming race a 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds fillies and mares, #1 Holder Close stood out because of its 61.5% (3-5 equivalent strength) win estimate in LP along with having a solid 27.0% SPD win estimate while being priced at fair value or even a discount (relative LP) at 7-2. In the race, Holder Close accelerated around the far turn and then catapulted past the favorite #5 Dialithic at 3-5. Holder Close paid $9.40 for the win.
The program had some excellent results yesterday at both Parx and Churchill. At Parx in the 1st race, a $12.5K claiming race at 6 1/2f on the dirt for three-year-olds, the program had the winner with its first selection of #4 Problems Around at 5-1. The horse had a a total win probability of 34.48%, translating to theoretical odds of 9-5. Problems Around projected 1st in final speed with a win estimate of 46.3% along with having a COMP value of 58.7%. The horse’s risk was elevated with a Coefficient of Variance of 12.80% but so was the risk of the other horses in this race. In the race, Problems Abound went wire to wire in the win, paying $12.00.
In race 7 at Churchill, a $20K Allowance race at 6f on the dirt for four-year-olds fillies and mares, the program’s 3rd selection, #1 Abitibi, won at 20-1. The horse projected 2nd in final speed with a win estimate of 25.2% (3-1 equivalent strength) while having low risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 6.63%. The horse was able to maintain its recent good form and win at a big price with a total win probability of 12.27% or 7-1 theoretical odds. Abitibi paid $27.58 for the win.
After yesterday’s Belmont Stakes, there is no doubt who the best three-year-old in the country is: Sovereignty. The horse made it look easy in the Belmont Stakes, quietly stalking mid pack before launching down the final stretch to defeat Journalism by three. For an instant, Journalism took the lead coming out of the far turn but Sovereignty took up the challenge to defeat his rival once again in a thriller. The program had the tri-fecta and superfecta horses among its top three and top four selections. Sovereignty likely benefited from the five week layoff whereas Journalism was handicapped with only three weeks turnaround from the Preakness Stakes, a race in which he went all out to win coming from behind at the wire.
Pro-Handicap Analytics 