Author: handicapwizard

The Grey Program had a nice result in the 3rd race at Gulfstream today (the first non-maiden race), a $12.5K claiming race at 1 1/16 mi. on the dirt for three-year-olds, with its first selection of #3 Wicked Genius at 3-1. Wicked Genius had a total win probability of 29.20%, converting to theoretical odds of 2-1. The horse’s speed projections were key in the race, projecting 1st in final speed with a 48.9% (1-1 odds equivalent) while having average risk with a Coefficient of Variance of 7.12%. That relatively low risk number made the speed projection fairly reliable, where Wicked Genius was a solid choice by projecting almost 1-1 strength against the field. On top of the final speed projection, the horse was also dominant in E2, LP and COMP with win estimates of 37.4%, 38.5%, 41.98%. In the race, Wicked Genius stalked from off the pace before making a wide move around the far turn. The horse’s continued to build momentum into the stretch and came up nicely for the win. Wicked Genius paid $8.20. The high speed and low risk profile that Wicked Genius had is exactly what a handicapper should be looking for in an overlay.

We’ve been taking a little break from handicapping following the close of the Saratoga meet but will be picking it up again soon. New things are on the way, including an updated strategy book for PHW 4.3. Stay tuned!

The Turf Program had a very nice result in the 6th race at Saratoga, a $40K maiden claiming race at 1 1/16 mi on the turf for three-year-olds, having the exacta order correct with its first two selections. The program’s first two selections were #11 Adventurous Spirit at 2-1 and #13 Bourbon Outlay at 14-1. This is the way the race finished with the $2 exacta paying $62.00.

The Program had back to back wins with its first selection in two graded stakes races at Saratoga on Saturday. The first was in the $500K G1 Ballerina Stakes in the 10th with #4 Society at 7-2 (5-2 theoretical odds) and in the $500K G1 Forego in the 1tth with #6 Mullikin at 8-5 (3-1 theoretical odds). Society paid $9.30 and Mullikin $5.30 for the wins.

Race 10: $500k G1 Ballerina

https://videopress.com/v/IK1TcOZH?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true

Race 11: $500 G1 Forego

In the Travers Stakes at Saratoga today, #7 Fierceness was the upset winner at 7-2, who held off a late charging #1 Thorpedo Anna at 3-1 at the wire. The result was not surprising, as Fierceness had projected first in both SPD (36.1%) and COMP (39.6%) with 2-1 and 7-5 strength in both speed metrics. Fierceness theoretical odds of 3-1 made the horse a slight overlay at 7-2. Nor was it a surprise that #1 Thorpedo Anna came in 2nd, who had the second highest COMP at 28.8%. The order of finish followed the horses with the highest COMP values in descending order. It’s always positive to have 20% plus COMP values along with low CV values. With #2 Sierra Leonne at 8-5 (5-2 theoretical odds) coming in 3rd and #7 Dornoch 4th, the Grey Program had the tri-fecta with its first three selection boxed and the super-fecta with its first four selection boxed. Fierceness paid $9.80 and the $3.00 tri-fecta box (3 horses) paid $29.12.

Wagering Result in the Travers using PHW 4.3 Grey